In his first speech as a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, Christopher Waller defended Fed independence and reassured his audience that “deficit financing and debt servicing issues play no role in our policy decisions and never will.” His goal was to dispel the “narrative” that, with massive federal debt and fiscal deficits, the Fed may become subservient to the Treasury. Large-scale debt monetization could then lead to inflation and a loss of Fed independence.
Waller was adamant that the Fed would not “succumb to pressures (1) to keep interest rates low to help service the debt and (2) to maintain asset purchases to help finance the federal government.” Despite his statement, there may be reason to fear fiscal dominance. As Harvard economist Greg Mankiw warns, “It would be a mistake to put too much faith in the prescience and skill of central bankers.”
Fiscal dominance occurs when central banks use their monetary powers to support the prices of government securities and to peg interest rates at low levels to reduce the costs of servicing sovereign debt. Although the Fed may not call its unconventional monetary policies “fiscal dominance,” there is no doubt that the distance between fiscal and monetary policy has narrowed since the 2007–2008 financial crisis, and especially since the pandemic.
Downplaying the risk of the Fed financing the fisc by monetary accommodation—and complacency about the consequent risk of inflation—is itself risky. As former Treasury Secretary Lawrence H. Summers declared,
As I look at $3 trillion of stimulus, $2 trillion of savings overhang, a major acceleration coming from COVID in the rear-view mirror, rates expected by the Federal Reserve to be at zero for three years even in a booming economy, record growth this year, major expansion of the Fed balance sheet, and much new fiscal stimulus to come—I’m worried.
In the remainder of this article, I will delve into the question of whether there is after all good reason to fear a future episode of fiscal dominance.
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