Despite reduced ridership and an impending financial crisis, the Bay Area Rapid Transit system is spending hundreds of millions of dollars planning to increase its capacity. In coming years, Bay Area voters may be asked first to bail out the system, and then pay for a second transbay subway tunnel that appears to be unnecessary.
Like most U.S. transit systems, BART suffered a catastrophic drop in ridership as the COVID-19 pandemic emerged in March 2020. While it has recovered some of the lost passengers, ridership levels remain well below 2019 levels and growth is stalling. Recently, BART reported mid-week ridership about 40% of 2019 budgeted levels.
BART is experiencing a slower recovery than systems in some other metropolitan areas because the Bay Area’s tech-heavy workforce can more easily work remotely. Further, the region has experienced a population decline, and some commuters have opted to drive due to concerns over BART’s safety and cleanliness.
As a result, BART has experienced a steep drop in fare revenue and is only able to maintain current service levels by virtue of extraordinary federal aid provided in response to the pandemic. That aid is now expected to run out in 2025, at which point a new revenue source will be needed to avoid deep service cuts. That revenue source could be a new tax which will have to be approved by local voters as early as November 2024, but more likely in 2026. Meanwhile, BART is teaming up with other California transit agencies to seek increased state subsidies from the legislature—a heavy lift as California faces revenue shortfalls and a large 2023–24 budget deficit.
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