U.S. employers are experiencing an unprecedented labor shortage. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported more than 10 million job openings from June to August 2021, which was more than double the historical average. One contributing factor to this shortage is that the U.S. government has issued about 1.2 million fewer visas to adult immigrants, refugees, and temporary foreign workers abroad since consulates were closed in March 2020 through July 2021 compared to the period from March 2018 to July 2019 before the pandemic.

In the 2018–19 period, 2.2 million work-eligible visas were issued to adults, and there were only about 1 million issued in the 2020–21 pandemic period. The 1.2 million fewer visas include about 14,000 adult refugees, 270,000 adult immigrants (permanent residents), and 872,000 adult temporary workers and their spouses eligible for work authorization (Figure 1). This estimate of the work-eligible population is somewhat conservative. Dependent children under the age of 21 were not included, even though some older kids could be authorized to work and find jobs. This also doesn’t include foreign international students on F‑1 visas, even though they sometimes can work.

Figure 2 compares visa issuances to work-eligible adult immigrants, refugees, and temporary workers for each month of the pandemic period from March 2020 to July 2021 (the most recent available month) to those same months in 2018 and 2019. The rate of work-eligible visa issuances was down by 83 percent in July 2020 compared to July 2018, and while the administration has closed the gap some since then, issuances were still down 25 percent in July 2021 (compared to July 2019). Cumulatively, issuances were 54 percent lower across the entire period. In other words, the pandemic shut down a majority of the normal flow of economic migration.

Figure 3 shows just the rate of adult immigrant visa issuances from March 2020 to July 2021 compared to March 2018 to July 2019. Between consular closures and Trump’s immigrant visa ban, immigrant visa issuances—which are nearly all family-sponsored and diversity lottery immigrants—fell 98 percent in May 2020 (compared to May 2018). While immigrant visa issuances have actually fully recovered as of July 2021, the immigrant visa backlog is now so large that it will take issuing at a much higher rate to end the cumulative deficit of 434,000 fewer immigrants (including about 270,000 adult immigrants). There should have been 453,034 immigrant visas for adults, but there were only 183,128 issued.

Figure 4 shows the rate of adult temporary worker visa issuances from March 2020 to July 2021 compared to March 2018 to July 2019. These include some spouses who are eligible to work, but not required to do so, but the rest of these workers—unlike immigrants or refugees—are required to work as a condition of their status. Some of the temporary workers who would have entered in 2020 but for the pandemic would have left by 2021 anyway. But these would be mainly the H‑2A and H‑2B seasonal workers for agricultural and nonagricultural industries, and there was actually an increase in overall H‑2 issuances (with a big increase for H‑2A and smaller decrease for H‑2B), so most of the missing temporary workers would have still been in the country in July 2021.

Figure 5 shows the number of work-eligible temporary visas by category during both periods. During the early pandemic months, almost the only visas issued were to H‑2 seasonal workers, while nearly all other categories shut down. This is largely because the State Department chose to waive visa interviews for these workers, and agricultural workers and many nonagricultural workers were exempt from President Trump’s nonimmigrant visa ban. The largest reduction occurred for the J visa category for exchange visitors and their spouses, which saw a reduction of almost 400,000 visas, followed by more than 200,000 H‑1B visas, and then almost 131,000 L visas and their spouses.

Figure 6 shows the rate of adult refugee admissions from March 2020 to July 2021 compared to March 2018 to July 2019. These refugees are just a fraction of the overall deficit in legal foreign workers, but they are noteworthy nonetheless. Although one month (Sept. 2020) reached the prior trend, refugee admissions were overall down 69 percent across the entire pandemic period. They were still down about 57 percent in July 2021.

Of course, the fact is that legal immigration should have been—absent governmental interference—much higher in 2021 than the prior trend under the Trump administration, which was already depressed compared to the 2016 levels. But President Biden has kept most U.S. consular offices abroad at least partially closed to workers, maintained an incomprehensible ban on travel from Europe and several other countries, chose not to streamline immigrant visa applications, and failed to increase the refugee cap until late in the year (and then failed to increase admissions very much).

There are some hopeful signs. The September 2021 refugee admissions (not shown) were the highest since 2017, but there is often a temporary spike in September (as there was last year), so this is not definitive evidence that the program is back on track. Immigrant visa issuances have recovered to their pre-pandemic levels, but nonimmigrant visa issuances have not, largely due to the failure of the State Department to fully reopen work visa processing. 

But much more must be done to eliminate the backlogs of applicants waiting for visas. The labor shortage was still nearly double the historical average in August 2021, and while conditions may improve in coming months as unemployment insurance expires and more workers return, the Biden administration should open the borders now to allow more workers to fill open positions and increase economic growth.