You’ve heard of the Free State Project. Now meet the Free Lunch Project.
God, I love the internet.
(Thx go out to The ‘Dredge Report.)
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You’ve heard of the Free State Project. Now meet the Free Lunch Project.
God, I love the internet.
(Thx go out to The ‘Dredge Report.)
The forces of educational stagnation have launched a comprehensive attack on school choice in Arizona. The ACLU-and-friends lawsuit in September against the state’s new education tax credit was followed yesterday by a challenge to two new voucher programs. This is the first time that the education establishment has dared to turn its fire on school choice programs that help disabled and foster-care children. This recent move signals panic among school choice opponents, who now begrudge a few thousand of the most disadvantaged children in Arizona a choice in education, along with everyone else. Hopefully the court will go with recent precedent in Kotterman vs. Killian (1999), where the Arizona Supreme Court upheld personal donation tax credits, and find that vouchers supporting parental school choice isn’t government support of religion (which AZ’s anti-Catholic Blaine amendment prohibits).
Some more interesting numbers from Election 2006:
The Democrats won 29 seats held by Republicans or formerly held by Republicans (open seats). In 2004 President Bush won 19 of those districts with an average of 56 percent of the vote. Senator Kerry won 10 of the districts, taking an average of 52 percent of the vote.
In 15 of these 29 districts, Bush won 54 percent of the vote or more in 2004. In other words, those 15 Democrats will represent strongly Republican districts. Those 15 House members would, if they return to the GOP, deprive the Democrats of a majority.
We may see both divided government and, on some issues, a divided House majority.
The health insurance industry has proposed $300 billion in taxpayer subsidies for … the health insurance industry.
We are shocked.
In the Senate, the Republicans have just elected pork barrel champion Trent Lott (R‑MS) to be their second-ranking leader. I guess the GOP wants to get a headstart on losing the 2008 election.
Over in the House, the battle over the majority leader’s position is being fought between John Murtha (D‑PA) and Steny Hoyer (D‑MD). According to the Washington Post, Murtha is a corruption-tainted supporter of the recent orgy of congressional earmarks, while Hoyer is a more moderate and sensible choice for leader.
But let’s not get too excited about Steny Hoyer. In a 2004 story, the Washington Post portrays him as an unapologetic champion of bringing home federal spending goodies to his Maryland district. Indeed, he is one of the 10 most prodigious porkers in the House. When asked whether Congress ought to end pork barrel spending, Hoyer said “I hope not…pork barrel is in the eye of the beholder.”
The election is over, and the time has come to determine what the voters said by looking at the exit polls. Here’s what I see in the data served up with two caveats.
First, “the people” don’t say much except “No.” Of course, “no” to the ruling party also means “yes” to the alternative, in this case to the Democrats. But there is no collective mind that instructs the government in any detail beyond “no.”
Second, I’m going to compare 2006 exit poll data to a similar survey in 2004. But there are two differences. The electorate in the 2004 presidential contest was about 50 percent larger than the turnout last week. Many of the differences between 2006 and 2004 you are going to hear about in the next week or two will be relatively small. For example, self-described conservatives made up 34 percent of the voters in 2004 and 32 percent this year. That difference may just reflect the relative propensity of conservatives to vote in presidential and midterm elections (or it may just be random variation). (I can’t compare 2006 to the last midterm in 2002 because of problems with the latter poll). For this reason, I’m only going to pull out of the data largish differences between 2004 and 2006.
In general, the 2006 electorate was not all that different from the 2004 group. However, there are some differences:
Self-identified independents (26 percent of the vote) went from a 48–49 Republican-Democratic split to 39–57 favoring the Dems.
In 2004, 84 percent of self-identified conservatives voted for the GOP. This year 78 percent did.
Self-described moderates split 45–54 Republican-Democrat in 2004. This year the division was 38–60 against the GOP.
45 percent of the electorate said in 2006 that they attended church once a week or more. The GOP lost 6 percent of that group compared to 2004 while the Democrats were up 4 percent.
The Republicans also were down 5 percent among Protestants and 8 percent among Roman Catholics. Just over 80 percent of voters identify as Protestant or Catholic.
Asked about the importance of various topics, 67 percent said Iraq was either extremely or very important. 82 percent said the same about the economy; 74 percent said the same about corruption and ethics.
What does it all mean? The GOP lost significant support among independents, moderates, conservatives, and the pious, especially Roman Catholics. Each of these groups is a significant part of the electorate.
The question of the independent is especially interesting. 26 percent of the electorate told exit pollsters that they were independent of party. Earlier studies suggest only about 10 percent of the electorate are actually independent, and they are less likely to vote. Most “independents” do vote for one of the major parties whatever they say to exit surveys. My guess is that the GOP lost the votes this time of a lot of self-identified independents who normally vote Republican.
Exit polls do not ask people whether they are libertarians. My thought – yet another guess – would be that libertarians might identify themselves as independents in party and either as moderate or conservative in ideology. If so, the GOP lost their vote too.
Commentators often say the Republican party is a balancing act between economic libertarians and social conservatives. A GOP majority is always precarious: what pleases economic libertarians must alienate social conservatives and vice-versa. In 2006, the Republicans’ conduct of government along with the Iraq war alienated both aspects of its base along with many other voters who are not attached to one of the parties.
The picture is not all bleak for Republicans in 2008. In 2004, President Bush won two-thirds of the open and formerly Republican House districts that elected Democrats in 2006. Many of them could return to the GOP in 2008.
Democrats will have two years to dig in their incumbents in. If they can hold their majority in 2008, I would not bet against a Democratic House for a generation.
Finally, a strange result. When exit polls asked “Will the Democrats make American safe?,” fully 29 percent of Democrats answered “no.” The party apparently has yet to convince on national security.
In today’s American Spectator online, I ask what it would be like if coffee shops were run like public schools. The piece was inspired by (and references) a recent Seattle School Board meeting that went badly off the rails.