Yesterday the Federal Trade Commission reported cigarette sales to wholesalers and retailers increased by 800 million during 2020 compared to the previous year, after trending downward for two decades. Sales of smokeless tobacco were also up.

Meanwhile, the latest Nielsen convenience store report shows sales of e‑cigarettes were down 1.6 percent since February 2020 and have been declining since August 2019. In February 2020 the Food and Drug Administration ordered makers of cartridge-based e‑cigarettes to stop manufacturing and distributing flavored e‑cigarettes and submit applications for pre-market approval of their remaining products by September 9, 2020 in order to stay in the market for at least another 12 months.

Last September the FDA rejected 90 percent of e‑cigarette applications while deferring a decision on the largest e‑cigarette maker, Juul. In mid-October the agency approved three products that enjoy a very small share of the market and are tobacco-flavored.

It is wrong to jump to any conclusions at this point. The increase in tobacco sales is likely multifactorial. Smokers may have stocked up on tobacco cigarettes to avoid possible shortages or other difficulties associated with shelter-in-place orders during the pandemic. Working from home might have allowed for greater tobacco consumption. Pandemic-related stress may have contributed to relapses among smokers who quit or increased consumption among those who haven’t quit. And no data is yet available on the number of new smokers.

But one can’t help wondering if the “war on vaping” being waged by anti-smoking groups and the FDA is a factor as well. E‑cigarettes are a proven form of harm reduction, and flavored vaping products are overwhelmingly preferred by tobacco smokers trying to quit. Had they been readily available during the pandemic they might have led to a different FTC report.