Since our last update post in April 2021, Cato’s COVID-19 Permanent Private School Closures tracker has been rather quiet, with only eight total closures in the past three months, of which just four were explicitly linked to the pandemic’s effects.
Is no news good news?
There are certainly some encouraging signs that private schools have made it through the worst of COVID-19. That said, the pandemic’s effect on lower‐income private schools, as well as uncertainty about the Delta variant as we enter the new school year, could temper one’s optimism.
The recent dearth of closure announcements may indicate that most of the schools in dire financial straits have already announced their folding. As you can see in the chart below, the vast majority of closure announcements came during the initial shock and uncertainty of the pandemic’s arrival, basically April through August 2020. There was a smaller wave early in 2021, perhaps as schools’ budgets revealed whether they could reasonably open for the 2021–22 school year. And since? Not much.
Many private schools may have stood pat on enrollment last year, or at least withstood enrollment declines. And some saw increases as the year went on.
For the coming school year, some – maybe many – private schools could be looking at increased enrollment. Our survey last year found that roughly a third of schools increased their K‑12 numbers between the 2019–20 school year and the start of the 2020–21, and a recent Forbes headline suggests that the pandemic may have “boosted private school enrollment forever.” Also, a few institutions, like Trenton Catholic Academy in New Jersey, have rallied to reverse closure announcements. Dissatisfaction with public schools, combined with the rapid increase of school choice options, could allow even more students to access private schooling.
Of course, not all private schools are on equal financial footing. As a previous post noted, the average tuition of schools on our closure list is below the national average. Families who can afford more expensive private schools may be able to sustain schools in higher income areas, but lower income families may not have as much freedom. Over half of our closures happened in areas with a median family income below the national average, including the four most recent.
The economic effects of COVID have disproportionately hurt those with less income, and private schools are no exception.
And all private schools may face more COVID-19 headwinds. As the Delta variant spreads, schools face, as an Education Week article put it, “a tangle of state or district rules, legal questions, and community pushback.” While many policies focus on public schools, there can be overlap. For example, an executive order on mask mandates like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ may or may not apply to private schools, depending on legal interpretations. That said, there is no indication that private schools will face a similar closure situation to 2020, and the 9th Circuit’s recent ruling in Brach v. Newsom may bolster the ability for private schools to remain open.
Ultimately, no news is good news when you are running a private school closure tracker. It strongly suggests that non‐governmental education is weathering the COVID-19 storm.
