Pollsters and pundits were surprised by the 2022 midterms that didn’t deliver a Republican Red Wave. Republicans were expected to sweep the House and likely gain control of the Senate. But that’s not what happened. Republicans failed to take the Senate and may only barely garner a House majority. As of this writing, Republicans have only won 217 seats—1 seat shy of a majority—with 11 undecided races. What happened? Our analysis shows that Republican Senate and gubernatorial candidates who said that President Biden did not actually win in 2020 were more likely to lose than Republicans who accepted the election results.

Midterms historically have favored the political party opposite the President’s party. In fact, out-parties have gained seats in 17 of the past 18 midterm elections. Given President Biden’s low approval rating hovering at about 42%, it appeared especially likely that Democrats would lose seats. Further, the economy has not been doing well with high annual inflation, high interest rates, and high gas prices. And most Americans (58%) think we’re currently in a recession. Also, Americans said they trusted Republicans more to handle the issue they cared most about: inflation (59% were “extremely concerned” about this). Issues like abortion, where voters trust Democrats more, appeared to matter less to voters than the economy.

Candidate quality problems may help explain, in part, why Republicans didn’t have a better night. For one, polls show that more voters wanted a Republican-controlled Senate than wanted to vote for their state’s Republican candidate in states with key Senate races. It’s worth noting that Republicans lost or got fewer votes in all four of the key toss-up Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Our analysis sheds light on what voters did not like about their particular Senate candidates. In our analysis of Republican candidates for Senate and Governor, we find that candidates who did not accept the 2020 election results may have paid a penalty at the ballot box.

We use FiveThirtyEight’s database of candidates’ stances on the 2020 election to categorize Republican candidates who “fully denied” and “questioned” the 2020 results compared to Republican candidates who did not question or challenge the validity of the election. We then examined what percentage of each category won their races.

Republican Senate Candidates

Of Republican Senate candidates who “denied” or “questioned” the 2020 election results, 42% won their elections compared to 67% of Republicans who did not deny or question the results. If Republican candidate Herschel Walker loses the Georgia Senate run-off, the share of winning denying/​questioning Senate candidates would fall to 38%. If he wins, the share would rise to 46%. If we only compare Republican Senate candidates who fully refused to accept Biden as President, then 50% won compared to 60% who did not refuse to accept Biden’s win.

Republican Gubernatorial Candidates

Forty-four percent (44%) of Republican gubernatorial candidates who “denied” or “raised questions” about Biden’s 2020 win were elected. In contrast, 53% of Republican gubernatorial candidates who did not challenge the 2020 election results won their races. One governor’s race, in Alaska, remains outstanding. Only 29% of Republican gubernatorial candidates who fully refused to accept Biden’s victory were elected, compared to 54% of everyone else.

Several states had voters elect a Republican Governor but not the Republican Senator, or visa versa. In the 3 states where there was this kind of split ticket voting, the Republican candidate who did not challenge the 2020 election results won 100% of the time. The Republican candidate who denied or questioned Biden’s win won 0% of the time.

Republican House Candidates

The House has a more complicated story. Raising doubts about the 2020 election may have helped Republicans in non-competitive House districts but may have cost them in competitive districts where they had to appeal to independent and Democratic voters. Among all House races, 65% of Republicans who denied or questioned the 2020 election results won compared to 39% of other Republicans. Comparing Republicans who fully denied the 2020 outcome shows a starker picture: 73% of Republicans who fully denied the outcome won, compared to 38% who did not fully deny.

We examined Republican House candidates in the most competitive House races according to Cook Political Report’s “Tier 1.” In these competitive districts, only 22% of Republicans who fully denied Biden’s victory won their races compared to 29% of Republicans who did not. Among the second most competitive tier, “deniers” won 50% and “non-deniers” won 43% of their races. Among the less competitive third and fourth tiers deniers won a higher share of their races than non-deniers. Among tiers 3 and 4, “deniers” won 67% and 78% respectively and “non-deniers” won 35% and 39% respectively.

Claiming that Biden did not legitimately win the presidency may have helped Republican candidates in non-competitive safe districts. After all, these candidates primarily had to appeal to Republican voters who don’t believe Biden won fairly. However, this rhetoric likely made it difficult for other Republicans running in competitive or statewide races in which they had to appeal to Democrats and independents who don’t believe Biden won due to voter fraud.

Conclusion

Political pundits and Republican officials are trying to determine why the expected Republican Red Wave petered out. Surely, the overturning of Roe vs. Wade and the resurgent salience of the issue of abortion played a significant role. Indeed, abortion was the number two issue affecting vote choice according to exit polls. Notably, Republicans regardless of their stance on the 2020 election did relatively poorly in toss-up/competitive House races. It is likely that abortion played an important role in subduing a Red Wave. Other explanations for Republican underperformance simply blame an electoral map more favorable to Democrats this election cycle. While these seem to be important factors, we cannot overlook the role that poor candidate quality may have played.

Claiming Biden did not legitimately win the presidency appears to have had a polarizing effect. It may have helped shore up support among the base of Republican voters while also coming across as unserious and perhaps juvenile to independent swing voters who do not doubt the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

Our analysis illustrates that in statewide races, Republican candidates who denied or questioned the 2020 election underperformed. Could Republicans currently be surfing a tidal wave into Congress had they not nominated candidates who repeated 2020 voter fraud claims? Accepting the 2020 election results may have helped them persuade independents and Democrats to vote for them. But perhaps many feared doing so would hamper enthusiasm among their Republican base. What is clear is that claims of 2020 voter fraud are a polarizing cause that likely cost Republicans. Is this the only factor to blame for the lackluster Republican performance? No. Other issues, such as abortion, played a large role. But these data do provide some indication that Republicans may have had a better night had they not nominated candidates who dabbled in election denialism.