PCE Core Inflation (less food and energy) rose at an annual rate of 4% rate for the past four months – down from a 5.3% rate in the previous 8 months (and 6.5% last March to June).

By contrast, the annual rate of PCE Food inflation averaged 16.3% from February to May, and PCE Energy inflation averaged 78.2%.

Unless anyone imagines the devastating impact of Russia’s war with Ukraine on global food and energy supplies and prices is something the Federal Reserve could or should try to fix (by adding higher interest rates to those expenses) we should welcome this year’s moderation of Core PCE Inflation. There are encouraging signs it may slow further, from 0.3% a month to 0.2% or less.