In the closing days of 2022, North Korea’s political leadership held a plenary meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party’s central committee, which reviewed policy successes in 2022 and set goals for 2023.

Nuclear weapons and national defense were featured prominently in state media coverage of the plenary meeting, which is unsurprising since 2022 was a record year for North Korean missile testing. If Kim Jong Un follows through on the goals laid out at the recent meeting, then 2023 will be an even busier year for North Korea’s nuclear and missile forces.

North Korea committed itself to an ambitious expansion of its nuclear arsenal at the most recent congress of the Workers’ Party in January 2021.

Before the 2021 congress, North Korea’s nuclear forces primarily consisted of liquid-fueled ballistic missiles armed with relatively high-yield—more powerful—nuclear warheads. These missiles could hit targets in both East Asia and the continental United States. However, North Korea’s nuclear arsenal was also vulnerable. Missiles using liquid fuel typically do not carry the fuel inside them due to the fuel’s corrosive qualities. Instead, the missiles are transported to a firing position before being fueled in the field. This process takes time and requires many support vehicles, which makes these missiles vulnerable to early detection and destruction.

North Korea’s missile forces have come a long way since January 2021. Missile testing efforts in 2021 and 2022 primarily featured shorter-range missile and large-caliber rocket systems that could target military bases in South Korea and Japan. A notable feature of these new systems was their use of solid fuel, which is much easier to store and transport than liquid fuel. Increased use of solid-fueled missiles makes it more likely that North Korea could fire its weapons before they could be destroyed on the ground.

North Korea wants to arm these shorter-range, solid-fueled missiles with low-yield or “tactical” nuclear weapons. Per North Korea’s September 2022 nuclear policy law, in a war Pyongyang would reach for tactical nuclear weapons quickly to counteract the superior conventional forces of South Korea and the United States. Thus far, North Korea has not successfully tested a low-yield nuclear weapon, but satellite images of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in 2022 showed activity which could presage a nuclear test. American and South Korean officials regularly warned about a resumption of North Korean nuclear testing throughout 2022, but North Korea did not conduct a test.

The recent plenary meeting reiterated North Korea’s goal of deploying tactical nuclear weapons. A report on the meeting stated, “[South Korea’s military actions] highlights the importance and necessity of the mass-production of tactical nuclear weapons and calls for an exponential increase of [North Korea’s] nuclear arsenal.” A test of a tactical nuclear weapon design is a very real possibility in 2023 given North Korea’s stated goal of expanding the arsenal and activity at the test site.

Another technical milestone for North Korea’s nuclear forces that could occur in 2023 is a test flight of a solid-fueled intercontinental range ballistic missile (ICBM). In November 2022, North Korea tested a new liquid-fueled ICBM for the first time since 2017. In mid-December 2022, North Korea announced a successful test firing of a large diameter solid rocket engine that could have enough power to be used in an ICBM. The recent plenary meeting set a task “to develop another ICBM system whose main mission is quick nuclear counterstrike,” which most likely means a solid-fueled ICBM given the much shorter preparation and launch times associated with solid rocket motors compared to their liquid fuel counterparts.

Finally, around the same time as the large diameter solid rocket engine test in December, North Korea claimed a successful test of a new rocket that put a small satellite briefly into orbit. State media commentary on the rocket launch stated that North Korea will attempt to put a new military reconnaissance satellite into orbit sometime in 2023. The recent plenary meeting reiterated this goal.

The latest plenary meeting laid out three major goals for improving North Korea’s national security: rapid expansion of tactical nuclear weapons; development of a solid-fueled ICBM; and the launch of a military reconnaissance satellite. The plenary meeting demonstrated consistency and predictability in North Korea’s nuclear development goals that were first laid out January 2021 at the 8th Party Congress and reiterated in the September 2022 nuclear policy law.

North Korea watchers can expect a very busy 2023.