Just when we see encouraging signs that prohibitionists are beginning to learn that drug prohibition is the main cause of harm production from nonmedical drug use–with new initiatives at home and abroad to decriminalize illicit drug use–policymakers in New Zealand are about to add a widely used drug to the list of the prohibited: tobacco.

Reuters reports that New Zealand’s government intends to introduce legislation next year that would completely ban the sale of tobacco products to all people in the age 14 and under cohort beginning in 2027 and continuing indefinitely. At the same time, it will cut back on the number of licensed tobacco retailers and order the gradual reduction in nicotine concentration in all tobacco products sold to existing legal customers. The goal is to create an entirely “smoke-free” generation beginning in 2027. This will make New Zealand one of the most restrictive countries in the world with respect to tobacco use. Only Bhutan, which banned tobacco entirely in 2010, is more restrictive.

When will they learn? Prohibition only serves to open up new markets for the underground trade. Bhutan’s prohibition opened a new market for tobacco products smuggled primarily from India. The Bhutan government’s news service Kuensel reported in 2017 that this healthy black market made Bhutan’s rate of per capita tobacco users the highest in South East Asia at 24.6 percent:

Despite complete ban on tobacco sales, tobacco use remains high among 13- to 17-year-old which constitutes 9.4 percent of the total population

Bhutan also has the highest number of adolescents using other tobacco products at 29.3 percent followed by Timor-Leste (27.1 percent) and Thailand (14 percent).

The data used in the report are from the latest round of the global school-based student health surveys implemented by the member states of the WHO SEA region.

According to the report, while almost all countries in the region with a few exceptions legally restrict supply including sale of tobacco and alcohol to people under a certain age ranging from 18 to 21 years and completely ban the supply and sale of drugs, the results show their use remains high among 13–17-year-olds.

The Bhutanese seem to be learning from their disastrous mistake. Recognizing that increased tobacco smuggling is a main cause of COVID-19 transmission in its southern provinces, this past summer Bhutan’s National Assembly lifted the ban on the sale, importation, and distribution of tobacco products to persons over age 18. Growing tobacco or manufacturing tobacco products within the country’s borders remains prohibited. Bhutanese legislators are also considering repeal of its 100 percent sales tax on tobacco products. The national news service reported the proposal to repeal the sales tax was “made so that tobacco is available at the cheapest rates possible and shopkeepers and consumers do not resort to smuggled products.”

One would expect sophisticated leaders in New Zealand to be acutely aware of the harmful unintended consequences—and utter futility—of prohibition. If prohibition hasn’t worked for drugs that are much less popular, why would anyone they think it will work for tobacco?

I wrote earlier this year that a proposal to ban menthol cigarettes in the U.S. is likely to worsen racial inequities in the criminal justice system. Menthol cigarettes are particularly popular among young adults and in Black and Brown communities. With law enforcement already attracted to the “low-hanging fruit” of people like Eric Garner selling loose cigarettes on the street, adding menthol cigarettes to the menu of black market products can only make matters worse.

New Zealand is not immune to such an outcome. At present, roughly 12 percent of New Zealanders smoke, but 29 percent of indigenous Maori adults smoke. Expect this minority group to be a marketing target for black market tobacco dealers.

The New Zealand Department of Corrections reports that Maori are disproportionately represented in criminal justice statistics “to an alarming degree.” In 2016 the New Zealand Herald told readers Maori are imprisoned at twice the rate of New Zealanders of European descent. A phased in ban on tobacco products, as New Zealand policymakers envision, can only make matters worse.

If New Zealand is interested in reducing the harmful effects of tobacco smoking, it should liberalize its vaping regulations, which recently placed most flavored e‑cigarettes off limits. Nicotine-containing e‑cigarettes are a proven means of helping tobacco smokers quit. There is no evidence they are a gateway to tobacco smoking among youth.

It’s not too late for New Zealand lawmakers to change their minds about this.