Majorities oppose cancelling federal student debt if it raises their taxes, primarily benefits the wealthy, increases college prices, or causes more employers to require degrees.



The Cato 2022 Student Debt Cancellation National Survey, a new national poll of 2,000 U.S. adults, finds 64% of Americans support the federal government forgiving up to $10,000 in federal student loans for people who earn less than $150,000 a year or less than $300,000 per year for married couples. However, support for cancelling federal student loan debt plummets when Americans consider its trade-offs.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose cancellation if forgiving $10,000 per borrower raises their taxes (64%) or if it primarily benefits higher income people (68%). Even more Americans oppose if cancellation incentivizes colleges and universities to further raise prices, as research has shown it may. About three-fourths of Americans would oppose student debt cancellation if it caused universities to raise their tuition and fees (76%) or if it caused more employers to require college degrees even if not needed to do the job (71%), also known as “credential inflation.”

“These data show that Americans don’t like the costs that many experts believe are associated with federal student loan forgiveness” said Cato’s Director of Polling Emily Ekins, Ph.D.

Democrats Would Accept Tax Increases, Not Tuition Inflation

Democrats and Republicans respond differently to trade-off considerations. Without considering trade-offs, Democrats strongly support (88%) federal student debt cancellation, as do a majority (58%) of independents. However, Republicans oppose about 2 to 1, with 63% opposed.

A majority (56%) of Democrats would continue to support student debt cancellation even if it raised taxes. But Democrats turn against forgiving $10,000 in student debt per borrower if doing so meant colleges would raise their prices (67%) or if it led to credential inflation (64%).

Although independents initially support (58%) student debt cancellation, they oppose if it raises taxes (70%), benefits the well-off (74%), raises tuition rates (79%), or leads to credential inflation (71%). Republicans oppose (63%) student debt cancellation even before being asked about these potential costs. But their opposition rises about 20 points if cancellation led to tuition inflation (82%), credential inflation (83%), higher taxes (81%) or advantaged the well-off (78%).

Americans Who Repaid Debt Oppose Paying Higher Taxes for Cancelling Others’ Debt

The survey found that about 1 in 10 Americans are currently repaying their student loans. Nearly double that, 23% of Americans said they had already repaid their student loans. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Americans have not taken out student loans.

At first, majorities of Americans who’ve already repaid their loans (62%) or never took out loans (59%) support the cancellation proposal. But they are less willing to accept the trade-offs of debt cancellation than are current borrowers. Majorities of former borrowers and non-borrowers turn against cancellation if it raised their taxes (64%, 67% opposed, respectively), primarily benefited higher income people (73%, 70% opposed), caused tuition inflation (80%, 75% opposed) or credential inflation (70%, 76% opposed).

Unsurprisingly, 88% of current borrowers support debt forgiveness, while 12% oppose. Majorities of current borrowers would continue to favor debt cancellation even if it raised taxes (55%) or led to credential inflation (51%), which makes it harder for Americans without degrees to find jobs. Half (49%) of current borrowers would continue to support cancellation if it primarily benefited higher income people. Current borrowers found only one trade-off unacceptable: tuition inflation. If student debt forgiveness today meant hiked college prices tomorrow, then current borrowers would oppose the plan 69% to 31%.

Methodology

The Cato Institute 2022 Student Debt Cancellation National Survey was designed and conducted by the Cato Institute in collaboration with YouGov. YouGov collected responses online August 17 to 23, 2022, from a national sample of 2,000 Americans 18 years of age and older. Restrictions are put in place to ensure that only the people selected and contacted by YouGov are allowed to participate. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 2.39 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence.

The topline questionnaire and survey methodology can be found here. If you would like to speak to Dr. Ekins on the poll’s results please contact pr@​cato.​org or 202–789-5200.