It’s long been the conventional wisdom that Justice Breyer would retire this year and that has now been borne out, albeit earlier than the jurist apparently wanted it to be made public. With the Democrats’ nominal Senate majority in severe jeopardy in this fall’s midterms, the politically savvy Breyer—who had been Ted Kennedy’s counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee—knew what he had to do to facilitate a smooth confirmation for his successor.

Indeed, we haven’t had a confirmation process under divided government since 1991, when then-Senator Joe Biden presided over an explosive set of hearings for Clarence Thomas. Had President Donald Trump not kicked away Georgia’s two Senate seats, of course, Republicans would’ve maintained control of the Senate—and Breyer may well have chosen to stay on longer. But that’s Earth 2.

White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki has now confirmed that the president intends to fulfill his pledge to nominate a black woman. Although the pickings were slim in that demographic category a year ago—when looking to judges of suitable age on federal circuit and state supreme courts—President Biden has already had five black women confirmed to circuit courts, with three more in the pipeline.

The leading contenders are D.C. Circuit Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson (who took Merrick Garland’s seat when he became attorney general) and California Supreme Court Justice Leondra Kruger. Although “KBJ” seemed to have the inside track for many years—she was much discussed as a potential nominee when Hillary Clinton seemed poised to win the presidency in 2016—Kruger’s youth (45 vs. Jackson’s 51) and perceived stronger jurisprudence may be tilting the odds in her favor.

Whomever Biden picks, however, is likely to be a reliable vote on the Court’s left wing, even more than Breyer has been. It has long been the case that Democratic-appointed justices vote much more in lockstep than their Republican-appointed counterparts.

Of course, the timing of this retirement shouldn’t matter. That it does is indicative a broader problem about which I’ve previously written.

And if you’re looking for a deeper look at how we got where we are and trends/​forces at play around judicial nominations and Supreme Court politics, I recommend my own Supreme Disorder, which was published right after the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and which is coming out in paperback this summer.