On November 15, 2022, a Russian-made missile hit the Polish city of Przewodow and killed two civilians. Immediate reactions from think tankers and policymakers followed. There were arguments about whether this would lead to invoking NATO’s Article 5 – the Article that calls all NATO countries to provide collective defense if one member is attacked – and, if so, whether things like a No-Fly Zone and retaliatory strikes would be an effective response.

In fact, the Latvian Minister of Defense tweeted that the “criminal Russian regime fired missiles… on NATO territory in Poland.” Moreover, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that “Terror is not limited to our national borders. Russian missiles hit Poland. … To fire missiles at NATO territory. This is a Russian missile attack on collective security! This is a very significant escalation. We must act.”

Despite this rhetoric, it was never clear that Russia fired the missile. Early on, some analysts urged caution and that the missile looked like something that was used by Ukraine.

After considering more evidence, American and Polish officials issued statements indicating that the missile that landed in Poland was likely part of a S‑300 missile defense system that was fired defensively by Ukraine and either missed its target or deflected into Poland after hitting its target. In other words, Russia never fired the missile into Poland.

Thankfully, cooler heads prevailed among policymakers. The NATO alliance consulted and learned the truth of the matter, and there will be no invocation of Article 5 over this incident. This demonstrates the folly in rushing to judgment. Policy analysts and journalists doing so on Twitter can lead to disinformation, while policymakers doing it could lead to a nuclear holocaust. The risks of these types of accidents will only go away once the war in Ukraine comes to a close. Recent news reports that U.S. leaders are nudging Ukraine to take diplomacy seriously are welcome.