Crime along the border and national security will be major themes in President Trump’s upcoming address where he will likely make the case for declaring a national emergency to build his wall. Shocking images and anecdotes of crime along the border fuel this narrative, but rarely are facts deployed to make the case. We’ve addressed the terrorism and crime arguments frequently, but only rarely touch on border crime. Border counties have far less crime per capita than American counties that are not along the border.

If the entire United States in 2017 had crime rates identical to those in counties along the U.S.-Mexico border, there would have been 5,720 fewer homicides, 159,036 fewer property crimes, and 99,205 fewer violent crimes across the entire country. If the entire United States had crime rates as low as those along the border in 2017, then the number of homicides would have been 33.8 percent lower, property crimes would have been 2.1 percent lower, and violent crimes would have dropped 8 percent.

Table : Crime Rates by Counties in 2017, per 100,000

Violent Crime Rate Property Crime Rate Homicide Rate
Border counties 347.8 2,207.1 3.4
Non-border counties 378.6 2,256.4 5.2
United States 377.8 2,255.2 5.1

Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reports 2017.

The numbers in Table 1 come from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports for 2017 that we obtained via a special request from the FBI. The crime rates are organized by county, with all crimes reported to sub-county agencies added up using county codes from the FBI’s 2012 Law Enforcement Agency Identifiers Crosswalk. The population figures also come from the FBI and are based on the intercensal reports obtained by the FBI from the Census Bureau. The 23 border counties are lumped together as one and compared to the non-border counties. The numbers for the entire United States are in the last row.

Sheriff Ronny Dodson of Brewster County Texas said, “A lot of politicians are running on securing the border. One’s got a six point plan, one’s got a nine point plan. They’re throwing tons of money at this border. I wish they’d just shut up about it.” Dodson went on to say, “I think they’re [politicians] just throwing money at the border for nothing. I think people on the interior see all these shows about the border where there’s violence.”

Although Dodson’s comment is just rhetoric, there is a lot more empirical support for his claims than there is for those who claim that there is a border crime crisis.