By September 17, President Obama will decide whether to reject, adopt, or modify recommendations from the U.S. International Trade Commission to impose duties of 55 percent on tires imported from China. As I’ve stated before, imposition of duties could be the most consequential trade policy decision in several years, since it is rare that the president is tied so directly to a decision to impose barriers. Trade restraints would be perceived by the Chinese as the direct wishes of the U.S. president, which would not be taken lightly in Beijing.

Although I elaborate further in a forthcoming paper, here is some smart analysis from trade lawyer and Cato coauthor Scott Lincicome.