The following is an excerpt from an article I wrote on China’s nuclear modernization activities and their strategic implications. CBNW magazine published the article on their website in late May 2022.
The nuclear aspect of US-China superpower competition is garnering increased attention. China’s longstanding nuclear modernization effort leapt into the headlines in 2021 with the discovery of three under-construction silo fields that could host up to 120 silos apiece. The Chinese also successfully tested a hypersonic fractional orbital bombardment system. What nuclear modernization steps is China taking and what are the strategic implications for the United States?
Answering the first part of that question is relatively easy, but it is harder to accurately predict the nuclear strategy that China’s larger and more sophisticated arsenal will implement. What is certain is the nuclear aspect of US-China competition is growing in importance.
A larger and more advanced Chinese nuclear arsenal does not automatically mean that the Americans can no longer deter first use by China. Analysts should beware threat inflation – and think calmly and carefully about ways to prevent competition from devolving into outright conflict. China’s changing nuclear arsenal will complicate this effort, but it does not make it a lost cause.
The rest of the article can be found on the CBNW website: https://cbnw.co.uk/china-lean-and-effective/.
