The United States hit a new record of about 7.7 million immigrants at various stages in its family-based permanent residence process in 2021—an increase of about 400,000 since 2019 and nearly a million since 2016. The staggering number is largely the consequence of outdated numerical limits on green cards last updated in 1990. As a result of the numerical limits on green cards, the big backlog will result in massive, decades-long wait times, and nearly 1.6 million family-sponsored immigrants will die before they have the chance to immigrate to the United States legally.

Figure 1 shows the growth of the backlog by stage in the process from 1992 to late-2021. When those limits first took effect in 1992, the family-based green card backlog was only 3.3 million. It is important to note that these estimates differ significantly from the most common source for information on the family-sponsored green card backlog: the State Department’s annual immigrant visa waiting list report. The numbers from that report are shown in orange, but that report does not include several groups of applicants. It excludes the “immediate relative” categories, anyone waiting to apply inside the United States, and—most importantly—anyone whose petition is yet to be adjudicated. As Figure 1 shows, 3 million had a sponsor’s petition pending.

Figure 2 breaks down the family-based backlog into its two main categories: immediate relatives (“uncapped”) and family preference immigrants (“capped”). Immediate relatives—spouses, minor children, and parents of adult U.S. citizens—have no direct numerical limits (though their admissions reduce the cap for family preference immigrants from 480,000 to not more than 226,000). Family preference immigrants are spouses and children of legal permanent residents, adult children of U.S. citizens, and siblings of adult U.S. citizens, as well as any spouses and minor children of those relatives. Family preference immigrants made up 89 percent of the family-based backlog in 2021.

The capped family preference categories’ backlog has grown from 3.3 million to 6.9 million. The family preference system has 5 sub-categories. Unmarried adult children of U.S. citizens (F‑1) constituted 6 percent of the backlog in 2021, spouses and minor children of legal permanent residents (F‑2A) 9 percent, adult children of legal permanent residents (F‑2B) 9 percent, married children of U.S. citizens (F‑3) 18 percent, and siblings of adult U.S. citizens 58 percent. Figure 3 shows the family preference backlog including both pending petitions, approved petitions, and pending adjustments of status.

Given these enormous backlogs, the wait times for recent and future applicants have grown into the decades. Based on the issuance rates in a typical year (2019), the average family-sponsored immigrant applying today would face a projected wait of about 19 years, but for several nationalities, the lines are longer than a person’s expected lifespan (224 years for a Mexican sibling of a U.S. citizen). Table 1 shows the projected likely number of deaths of family-sponsored immigrants (based on Social Security mortality tables, which may overstate the life expectancy for immigrants abroad). Effectively the sibling category where the shortest projected wait is 45 years is not even viable for most new applicants and nearly all older applicants would die.

Nearly 1.6 million family-sponsored immigrants currently in the backlog will die before they receive green cards. Mexicans will account for about 60 percent of the deaths in line. Mexicans are much more likely to die in line than other nationalities because green cards are not awarded proportionally to the number of applicants. Instead, each birthplace receives no more than 7 percent of the family preference green cards available under the caps each year.

There was never any reason to cap the number of family-sponsored green cards, and Congress should uncap them again, as was the case for the Western Hemisphere until the Immigration Act of 1965. Instead of uncapping green cards, Congress should permit backlogged family members to guarantee nonimmigrant visas for these close relatives of U.S. citizens, so that they are not permanently separated from their family while they wait. Even if it doesn’t uncap them entirely, Congress should take other measures to increase green cards—including exempting spouses and minor children of primary applicants—and recapturing previously unused green cards.