1. The views I express in this testimony are my own and should not be construed as representing any official position of the Cato Institute.
2. Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu, “Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary,” Cato Institute White Paper, September 28, 2021.
3. Travis Fisher, “The Inflation Reduction Act’s Energy Subsidies Are More Expensive Than You Think,” Cato at Liberty (blog), Cato Institute, September 5, 2023.
4. Asa Fitch, “The U.S. Gave Chip Makers Billions. Now Comes the Hard Part.,” Wall Street Journal, updated June 4, 2024.
5. Colin Grabow, Inu Manak, and Daniel J. Ikenson, “The Jones Act: A Burden America Can No Longer Bear,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 845, June 28, 2018; Scott Lincicome, “Doomed to Repeat It: The Long History of America’s Protectionist Failures,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 819, August 22, 2017; Scott Lincicome, “Green Industrial Policy Is Back (Again),” Cato Institute, August 11, 2021; Scott Lincicome, “‘Dumping’ Doesn’t Mean What You Think It Means,” Cato Institute, February 16, 2022; and Sallie James, “Food Fight,” Cato Institute Free Trade Bulletin no. 31, January 30, 2008.
6. “Should the U.S. Government Subsidize Domestic Chip Production? Two Advocates Square Off “Should the U.S. Government Subsidize Domestic Chip Production? Two Advocates Square Off,” Wall Street Journal, February 27, 2022.
7. Amrith Rankumar, “Private Sector’s Role in Climate Fight Grows during War in Ukraine,” Wall Street Journal, July 1, 2022.
8. Ximena Bustillo and Laura Benshoff, “Biden Urges Democrats to Pass Slim Health Care Bill after Manchin Nixes Climate Action,” NPR, updated July 15, 2022.
9. Morgan Chalfant, “McConnell Threatens Semiconductor Bill, Prompting White House Rebuke,” The Hill, June 30, 2022.
10. Eric Van Nostrand, Tara Sinclair, and Samarth Gupta, “Unpacking the Boom in U.S. Construction of Manufacturing Facilities,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, June 27, 2023.
11. “Real Private Fixed Investment,” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated May 30, 2024; “Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment,” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated May 30, 2024; “Real Private Fixed Investment: Nonresidential: Structures: Manufacturing,” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated May 30, 2024; “Real Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Nonresidential: Equipment,” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated May 30, 2024; and “Real Gross Domestic Product: Gross Private Domestic Investment: Fixed Investment: Nonresidential: Equipment: Industrial Equipment,” U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated May 30, 2024.
12. “Total Private Construction Spending: Manufacturing in the United States,” U.S. Census retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated June 3, 2024.
13. Eric Van Nostrand, Tara Sinclair, and Samarth Gupta, “Unpacking the Boom in U.S. Construction of Manufacturing Facilities,” U.S. Department of the Treasury, June 27, 2023.
14. “All Employees, Manufacturing,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated June 7, 2024; “Manufacturing Sector: Real Sectoral Output for All Workers,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated June 6, 2024; “Industrial Production: Manufacturing (NAICS),” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated May 16, 2024; “Manufacturers’ New Orders: Total Manufacturing,” U.S. Census Bureau, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated June 4, 2024; and “Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing (NAICS),” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, updated May 16, 2024.
15. “Manufacturing PMI at 49.2%: April 2024 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business,” Institute for Supply Management, May 1, 2024.
16. “2024 First Quarter Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey,” National Association of Manufacturers, March 5, 2024
17. “Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey: Fourth Quarter 2023,” National Association of Manufacturers, January 8, 2024.
18. See, e.g., Sebastian Obando, “Input Price Surge Signals Bumpy Road Ahead,” Construction Dive, March 15, 2024.
19. Scott Lincicome, “Offshore Headwinds,” Cato Institute, December 6, 2023; and Brian Deese, “The Next Front in the War against Climate Change,” The Atlantic, May 24, 2024.
20. Phillip Singerman and Alexander Kersten, “Implementing CHIPS: The NEPA Permitting Challenge,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 1, 2023; Hannah Northey, “Feds Offer $700M to Lithium Project at Heart of ESA Dispute,” E&E News, January 13, 2023; and Cindy Bae, “Permit Issue Halts Construction at Future VinFast Car Manufacturing Plant in Chatham County,” ABC 11, April 17, 2024.
21. See, e.g., John Keilman, “The Megafactories Are Coming. Now the Hustle Is On to Find Workers,” Wall Street Journal, December 10, 2023.
22. Dylan Sloan, “CHIPS Act Faces Talent Shortage despite $500 Billion Investment: ‘We Have to Make Semiconductor Manufacturing Sexy’,” Fortune, June 9, 2024.
23. Viola Zhou, “TSMC’s Debacle in the American Desert,” Rest of World, April 23, 2024.
24. Shuting Pomerleau, “‘Buy American’ Would Delay the U.S.’s Decarbonization Progress,” Niskanen Center, March 2, 2023; and “Inflation Reduction Act: Build America, Buy America,” McKinstry.
25. See, e.g., Joe Lancaster, “Taiwanese Company Demands U.S. Taxpayers Cover the Higher Costs of Making Semiconductors in Arizona,” Reason, July 25, 2023; and Brady Knox, “Price Tag for New Samsung Texas Chip Factory Soars over $25 Billion,” Washington Examiner, March 16, 2023.
26. Brian Deese, “The Next Front in the War against Climate Change,” The Atlantic, May 24, 2024.
27. Brian Deese, “The Next Front in the War against Climate Change,” The Atlantic, May 24, 2024.
28. Scott Lincicome, “… But We Won’t Do That,” Cato Institute, August 10, 2022.
29. “TSMC Arizona and U.S. Department of Commerce Announce up to US$6.6 Billion in Proposed CHIPS Act Direct Funding, the Company Plans Third Leading-Edge Fab in Phoenix,” Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, press release, April 8, 2024.
30. Kara Carlson, “Samsung to Delay Mass Chip Production at Massive Taylor Facility until 2025, Report Says,” Austin American-Statesman, December 27, 2023.
31. Sean McDonnell, “Intel’s Ohio Plants Delayed 2 Years; Will Start Production in 2027 or Later,” Cleveland.com, March 20, 2024.
32. Burl Gilyard, “SkyWater Technology Cancels Option on Land for $1.8B Indiana Semiconductor Plant,” Yahoo Finance, April 8, 2024.
33. Christine Mui, “‘I Don’t Know How This Happened’: A $3B Secret Program Undermining Biden’s Tech Policy,” Politico, May 24, 2024.
34. Zachery Eanes, “VinFast Tells Investors Its North Carolina Plant Remains on Track,” Axios, April 17, 2024; and Scott Lincicome, “VinFast in North Carolina Shows the Perils of Industrial Policy,” Cato Institute, May 26, 2023.
35. “Ford to Delay Production of New Electric Pickup and Large SUV as US EV Sales Growth Slows,” Associated Press, updated April 5, 2024; and Keith Naughton, Archie Hunter, and Heejin Kim, “Ford Cuts Battery Orders as EV Losses Top $100,000 per Car,” Bloomberg, May 10, 2024.
36. Author’s research.
37. Jennifer A. Dlouhy, “Biden’s Solar Factory Boom Slows as Cheap Imports Flood Market,” Bloomberg, updated May 13, 2024.
38. Amanda Chu and Demetri Sevastopulo, “US Solar Manufacturers in ‘Dire Situation’ as Imports Soar,” Financial Times, March 13, 2024.
39. See, e.g., Dan Robinson, “US Chipmakers Don’t Want to Be Locked Out of Industry’s Biggest Market: China,” The Register, May 3, 2023.
40. Amanda Chu and Demetri Sevastopulo, “US Solar Manufacturers in ‘Dire Situation’ as Imports Soar,” Financial Times, March 13, 2024.
41. Scott Lincicome, “On Biden’s New China Tariffs, History Provides Good Reasons for Almost Everyone to Worry,” Cato Institute, May 22, 2024.
42. John Fitzgerald Weaver, “Solar Panel Import Tariffs Are Affecting the Industry by Increasing Prices by up to 286%,” pv magazine, June 6, 2024.
43. Omar Sohail, “TSMC 3nm Wafer Production to Reach 100,000 Units by End of 2024, Increased iPhone Chip Orders, Qualcomm, MediaTek Accelerating This Growth,” WCCF Tech, November 21, 2023.
44. Anton Shilov, “TSMC 2nm Update: Two Fabs in Construction, One Awaiting Government Approval,” AnandTech, January 19, 2024; Anton Shilov, “TSMC Delays 3nm Arizona Fab by a Year, Cites Lack of U.S. Subsidies and Waning Demand,” Tom’s Hardware, January 18, 2024; and Christian Davis et al., “The Race between Intel, Samsung, and TSMC to Ship the First 2 nm Chip,” Ars Technica, December 11, 2023.
45. Asif Iqbal Shaik, “Samsung Wants to Keep 2nm Chip Production to Its Home Country,” SamMobile, February 2, 2024; and Abigail Jones and Sarah Al-Shaikh, “Samsung Delays Production at Taylor Factory to 2025, Reports Say,” KXAN, updated December 27, 2023.
46. Alfonso Maruccia, “Chips Manufactured in the US and Germany Will Cost More, TSMC Says,” TechSpot, April 22, 2024.
47. Taijing Wu, “Taiwan Chip Pioneer Warns US Plans Will Boost Costs,” Associated Press, March 16, 2023.
48. Asif Iqbal Shaik, “Samsung Wants to Keep 2nm Chip Production to Its Home Country,” SamMobile, February 2, 2024.
49. “Report: Intel Is Cancelling Its 10nm Process. Intel: No, We’re Not,” Ars Technica, October 22, 2018.
50. Kif Leswing, “Intel Used to Dominate the U.S. Chip Industry. Now It’s Struggling to Stay Relevant,” CNBC, April 26, 2024.
51. Jason Torchinsky, “America Is Missing Out on the Best Electric Cars,” The Atlantic, January 30, 2024.
52. Scott Lincicome, “On Biden’s New China Tariffs, History Provides Good Reasons for Almost Everyone to Worry,” Cato Institute, May 22, 2024.
53. Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu, “Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary,” Cato Institute White Paper, September 28, 2021.
54. Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu, “Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary,” Cato Institute White Paper, September 28, 2021.
55. Scott Lincicome, “Social Policy with a Side of Chips,” Cato Institute, March 8, 2023.
56. Josh Saul, “Swing States Net Half of $114 Billion in Inflation Reduction Act Factory Investment,” Bloomberg, April 2, 2024.
57. Matt Darling, “Are We Putting Workforce Hubs in the Right Places?,” Niskanen Center, May 8, 2024.
58. David Boaz, “The CHIPS Act Lays Out a Picnic for Lobbyists,” Cato at Liberty (blog), Cato Institute, March 22, 2023; Brandan Bordelon and Caitlin Oprysko, “Everybody in Washington Wants a Byte of the CHIPS Law,” Politico, March 17, 2023; and Timothy Cama, “Energy Interests Spent Big in ’23 Lobbying on IRA, Permitting,” Politico Pro, January 26, 2024.
59. James Bikales, “Congress Provided $7.5B for Electric Vehicle Chargers. Built So Far: Zero.,” Politico, December 5, 2023.
60. Camila Domonoske, “The $7,500 Tax Credit for Electric Cars Keeps Changing. Here’s How to Get It Now,” NPR, May 3, 2024.
61. David Shepardson and Joseph White, “US Eases Tailpipe Rules, Slows EV Transition through 2030,” Reuters, March 20, 2024.
62. Scott Lincicome, “Bye, America,” Cato Institute, February 15, 2023.
63. Valerie Volcovici, “A Trump Presidency Would Risk $1 Trillion in Clean Energy Investment, WoodMac Says,” Reuters, May 17, 2024.
64. “US November Election Results Could Decelerate Energy Transition, with $1 Trillion in Energy Investment on the Line,” Wood Mackenzie, news release, May 16, 2024.
65. Timothy Cama and James Bikales, “Republican Lawmakers Want to Keep Parts of Biden’s Climate Law — but Trump Might Not,” Politico, June 5, 2024.
66. Mike Colias, “Another Roadblock to the EV Transition: Personal Politics,” Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2024.
67. Nick Bunkley, “Bill Ford: EVs and Vaccines Both Caught in Blue-Red Fight,” Automotive News, October 22, 2023.
68. Mackenzie Hawkins et al., “Global Chips Battle Intensifies with $81 Billion Subsidy Surge,” Japan Times, May 13, 2024.
69. Ana Swanson et al, “Europe and Asia React to U.S. Push for Tech and Clean Energy,” New York Times, updated December 8, 2023.
70. Simon Evenett et al., “The Return of Industrial Policy in Data,” International Monetary Fund Working Paper no. 2024/001, January 4, 2024; and Anna Ilyina, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, and Michele Ruta, “Industrial Policy is Back But the Bar to Get it Right Is High,” IMF Blog, International Monetary Fund, April 12, 2024.
71. Scott Lincicome, “Countervailing Calamity: How to Stop the Global Subsidies Race,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 710, October 9, 2012.
72. Johannes Fritz and Simon Evenett, “Subsidies and Market Access: New Data and Findings from the Global Trade Alert,” October 25, 2021.
73. Asa Fitch, “The U.S. Gave Chip Makers Billions. Now Comes the Hard Part.,” Wall Street Journal, June 4, 2024.
74. Tim McDonnell, “Tariffs Won’t Save the US Battery Industry from China,” Semafor, May 31, 2024; Christian Davies and Song Jung‑a, “South Korean EV Battery Makers Lay Off Workers and Scale Back Investments in US,” Financial Times, November 22, 2023; Richard Waters, “US Chipmakers Reel from Sharp Boom to Bust,” Financial Times, November 13, 2022; Colin McKerracher, “China Already Makes as Many Batteries as the Entire World Wants,” Bloomberg, April 12, 2024; Harry Dempsey and Edward White, “China’s Battery Plant Rush Raises Fears of Global Squeeze,” Financial Times, September 4, 2023; Rhiannon Hoyle and Julie Steinberg, “The Boom in Battery Metals for EVs Is Turning to Bust,” Wall Street Journal, February 19, 2024; Scott Lincicome, “Countervailing Calamity: How to Stop the Global Subsidies Race,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 710, October 9, 2012. https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/countervailing-calamity-how-stop-global-subsidies-race; and Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu, “Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary,” Cato Institute White Paper, September 28, 2021.
75. David Feldman et al., “Winter 2024 Solar Industry Update,” NREL, January 25, 2024.
76. Scott Lincicome, “On Biden’s New China Tariffs, History Provides Good Reasons for Almost Everyone to Worry,” Cato Institute, May 22, 2024.
77. “Unfair Advantage: Distortive Subsidies and Their Effects on Global Trade,” World Bank Group, 2023.
78. Joe Lo, “IMF Warns against ‘Protectionism’ in Rich World’s Green Subsidies,” Climate Home News, March 1, 2023; and Anabel González, “Five Reasons to Fear a Global Subsidy Race and What to Do about It,” Trade Thoughts, from Geneva (blog), World Trade Organization, June 27, 2023.
79. Scott Lincicome and Huan Zhu, “Questioning Industrial Policy: Why Government Manufacturing Plans Are Ineffective and Unnecessary,” Cato Institute White Paper, September 28, 2021.
80. Scott Lincicome, “What Should America Do about Chinese Overcapacity?,” Cato Institute, March 20, 2024.