One explanation for this lack of research is that it seems self-evident to many people that the costs of mask mandates are essentially zero—or are at least much smaller than the benefits of masking. But this view is hard to square with the claim that mask mandates are necessary. Indeed, if people truly perceive mask-wearing as costless, then a mandate is not necessary to increase the use of masks. Moreover, compliance costs may vary across people and situations, but mandates are generally blunt tools, so they are unlikely to achieve their benefits at the lowest possible societal costs.
Our research presents the first estimates of the costs of mask mandates in the United States. We collected survey data from over 4,000 respondents in February 2022 using the survey platform Lucid. The survey collected detailed demographic information about respondents and their beliefs about masks and mask mandates. Most importantly, we asked each respondent to report the amount of money they would be willing to pay to be exempt from a mask mandate for three months and their reasons for not wanting to wear a mask.
Our results reveal that 56 percent of respondents would not be willing to pay any amount to be exempt from a three-month mask mandate, while the average amount that respondents would be willing to pay is $525. This suggests that a minority of the population perceive that wearing masks has a high cost and bear the cost of mask mandates. Our findings also reveal substantial differences between age groups. On average, respondents 18–29 years old were willing to pay over $1,200 to be exempt from the mask mandate, while those aged 65 years and older were only willing to pay about $50. The average parent in our sample was willing to pay about $800 for their children to be exempt from school mask mandates. Difficulty breathing was the top reason for not wanting to wear a mask, reported by 48 percent of respondents, followed by discomfort (45 percent), not being verbally understood (36 percent), and missing facial expressions (28 percent).
We used these estimates of respondents’ willingness to pay for an exemption to calculate the number of lives that would need to be saved for the benefits of a three-month, nationwide mask mandate to equal the mandate’s costs. Economic research frequently estimates the monetary value associated with reductions in mortality risk. Our calculations value a prevented death at $12.29 million in 2022 dollars, following guidance from the Department of Health and Human Services. Our survey findings imply that a three-month masking order in the United States costs roughly $164 billion in 2022 dollars. Thus, a nationwide mask mandate would need to save 13,333 lives over a three-month period to be cost-effective.
Research on the public health benefits of masking presents mixed findings. Nonexperimental studies suggest that masking reduces COVID-19 infection rates by 70–80 percent. But controlled experimental studies suggest that masking does not reduce infection rates or leads to smaller reductions of 12 percent or less. If the estimations of larger reductions are correct, then a three-month nationwide mask mandate would have been cost-effective. However, if the estimations of smaller reductions are correct, then such a mandate would have had higher costs than benefits.
Our work carries some limitations. First, our survey asked respondents about their preferences in hypothetical scenarios, so we cannot examine preferences in real scenarios. Second, our estimates use responses from early 2022. The perceived costs could vary over time, so extrapolating to other periods should be done cautiously. Third, respondents reported their reasons for being willing to pay for a mask mandate exemption but not how much each reason contributed to their willingness to pay. Nonetheless, our research presents the first estimates of the perceived costs of mask mandates and highlights demographic differences in respondents’ willingness to pay, making progress toward a complete cost–benefit analysis of the policy.
