At the nuclear construction cost levels most recently experienced in the United States and Western Europe, the answer is no. Over the past two decades, projects in the United States, France, and Finland have suffered substantial construction delays and cost overruns, resulting in astronomical upfront costs. The reasons for these delays and cost increases are numerous. The projects have had problems with labor force management, supply chains, and quality control caused by a mix of the high level of nuclear regulation, design choices, and mismanagement.
Calculating the lifetime costs of a new nuclear power plant built at these construction costs finds that nuclear could be cost-competitive with coal power if there is a reasonable-sized carbon tax. The most efficient natural gas plants are a different story, requiring a carbon tax of over $200 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, an amount well outside the tax levels recommended by the U.S. government and academic experts. This suggests that nuclear power’s current construction costs are not offset by the value of the avoided carbon emissions.
If the current high cost is a requirement of building an acceptably safe nuclear generator, then it is unlikely that carbon taxes within widely accepted ranges could induce private investors to invest in nuclear power rather than natural gas generation. However, many nuclear advocates argue that these high costs are primarily the result of overly burdensome regulations or poor design and construction choices. If this is the case, it is possible that nuclear costs could be reduced.
Comparing the costs of nuclear to fossil fuels at construction costs substantially lower than recent U.S. nuclear projects shows that nuclear power could be a viable option for private investors, but only if other conditions are just right. Namely, if nuclear had construction costs 65% lower than the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant, now under construction near Waynesboro, Georgia, and if future natural gas prices are high, nuclear would be cost-competitive with natural gas generation if there is an average carbon tax of roughly $70 per metric ton over the next 30 years. This is in line with carbon tax recommendations from the U.S. government and academic experts. At lower natural gas prices, however, the carbon tax would need to be higher than currently recommended carbon taxes.
Thus, if the climate damages of carbon emissions are included in electricity prices, nuclear’s appeal to private investors still relies on substantial reductions in construction costs and a high natural gas price. Though the long-term path of natural gas prices is unclear, the history of nuclear plant construction in the United States does not support hopes that nuclear’s high cost will be reduced enough to make nuclear energy competitive with gas.
Nuclear Plant Costs
Can nuclear power’s high construction costs be reduced? Nuclear plants are massive, complex structures built to precise standards. They require some of the largest cranes in the world to assemble and they incorporate enormous amounts of piping, valves, cables, concrete, and steel. However, the scale and difficulties of reactor construction are not entirely exceptional. Other projects such as chemical plants and coal power plants are also large and complex. And nuclear construction in Asia has had a more positive track record.
The costs of building nuclear reactors are typically quantified as “overnight construction costs” (OCC), estimated as dollars per unit of electrical capacity of the reactor. OCC only considers the engineering, procurement, and construction costs and other owner’s costs, but excludes the financing costs incurred during the duration of the project. In other words, OCC estimates the cost of construction as if the reactor were built overnight. OCC’s benefit is that it allows for an easier direct comparison between construction projects that take different amounts of time to complete (and between projects with different financial profiles).
Historically, the United States and Western Europe have experienced increasing OCC trends for nuclear. In the United States, early demonstration reactors built in the 1950s and ’60s saw costs decrease over that period. But during the era when the majority of U.S. reactors started construction, between 1967 and 1978, construction costs increased astronomically. The 48 reactors that began construction during this period and were finished before the Three Mile Island nuclear accident in 1979 saw construction costs increase by 190% over the era. An additional 51 reactors that were completed after Three Mile Island had an increasing OCC trend of 50%–200%.
Experiences in France, Canada, and West Germany are similar, though the scale of cost escalation is smaller. Early reactors started in the 1950s to early 1970s saw construction cost declines over time. But all countries had a later era, from the 1970s into the 1980s, when the bulk of their nuclear fleets was built, with large cost increases. The general story in the West is that nuclear construction costs increased as nuclear capacity increased. This result is the opposite of what would be anticipated for most technologies. As capacity is increased and more construction experience is gained, construction costs are expected to decline as firms learn how to build more efficiently. In the case of nuclear, it seems that some combination of managerial factors and increasing regulations offset any learning done by individual utilities and construction firms.
Are regulations to blame? / Disentangling the effect of regulations from management problems and design decisions is difficult. It is apparent that during the 1970s and ’80s, the expanding nuclear industry experienced a large growth in safety regulation, requiring increases in both the materials and labor needed to build power plants. In the worst cases, regulatory instability compelled extensive reworking mid-construction to meet new, higher standards, creating especially large delays and cost overruns. But whether the increased number and stringency of regulations is cost-effective is unknown.
Some of the regulations are based on actual experience, implying that there is at least some justification for the standards. For example, a 1975 fire at Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant in Athens, Alabama, burned a cable spreading room that contained cables for several redundant safety systems. The incident led the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to create new fire protection standards. Ever since, the nuclear industry has argued that the standards are excessive and costly.
Other regulations are based on hypothetical accidents with exceedingly low probability but with potentially devastating damages. For example, in 2009 the NRC imposed a new rule requiring that the reactor containment structure of new designs be able to withstand the impact of a large commercial aircraft. The probability of a nuclear plant needing to survive an airliner crash is very small, though there are potentially large damages if such a strike were to happen and the integrity of the reactor would not be maintained. The containment structure of a nuclear reactor is a significant part of the overall cost, and building to such a high standard adds a considerable amount to construction costs.
In general, more expensive reactors have been safer reactors according to some measures of reactor reliability and accident risk. But it is not known whether the expensive safety measures are worth their costs, especially considering that a major nuclear accident is both incredibly unlikely but also potentially very damaging.
Is management to blame? / While nuclear regulations have increased, nuclear construction has also faced problems with managing labor forces. Studies find that nuclear construction productivity has declined more rapidly than general U.S. construction productivity, largely because of construction management problems. Craft laborers on nuclear projects were unproductive for 75% of working hours because of issues like lack of tool availability and overcrowded workspaces.
The most recent nuclear projects in the United States and Western Europe have been uniformly defined by cost overruns and construction delays. That further affirms that the nuclear cost problem will be hard to fix. In the United States in 2013, construction began on four new Westinghouse-designed reactors, two each at Vogtle and at the V.C. Summer Nuclear Generating Station in Jenkinsville, South Carolina. After extensive cost increases and delays, Westinghouse declared bankruptcy in 2017, leading to the cancellation of the V.C. Summer project. The Vogtle project has continued, though the commercial operation date keeps getting pushed back and, at more than $11,000 per kilowatt of electrical capacity, it now costs more than double original projections. Similarly, new reactors being built at Olkiluoto, Finland, and Flamanville, France, have taken more than three times as long to complete and, at more than $8,000 per kW, cost more than three times as much as expected.
The specific reasons for the delays and cost overruns vary by project, but the common themes have been issues with construction management, problems with manufacturing plant components and supply chains, and a low level of design completion at the outset of construction. At Vogtle, construction schedule and cost projections overstated the ability of new, unproven construction techniques and innovative reactor design features to address the problem of high construction costs. At the same time, the projections underestimated the difficulty of achieving the high quality control standards of nuclear construction.
Asia’s experience / These recent projects clearly show that Western utilities, construction firms, and vendors have yet to fix nuclear’s capital cost problem. Unlike the West, however, evidence from Asia suggests that countries like China, South Korea, and Japan have managed to at least contain nuclear capital costs, if not reduce them over time. Before the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident stopped nuclear construction, Japan had stable costs. Available evidence on construction costs from China and South Korea suggest that construction costs there have been around $2,800 per kW, substantially lower than the costs seen in the West (though questions of data transparency mean these estimates should be interpreted cautiously). A major question for future nuclear construction in the West is what Asia does differently and whether its practices can be implemented elsewhere.
Nuclear advocates often point to the fact that much of the nuclear construction in Asia has been part of top-down, government-led efforts to expand reliance on nuclear energy. The result has been more reactor standardization and, thus, a greater ability to learn and implement cost-reduction practices. Evidence on construction in France and the United States does indicate that design standardization helps keep costs down. This is further supported by anecdotal evidence from South Korea, where nuclear designs have remained largely standardized and evolved only incrementally.
However, nuclear power also has favorable economic conditions in Asia that would be hard to replicate in the United States. Labor costs in South Korea and China are substantially lower than in the United States. A large portion of nuclear power construction costs is the wage bill for both laborers and engineers. Labor costs in the West can be reduced by shortening construction times and reducing the amount of project management and engineering services needed during construction. But, to some extent, the construction costs of nuclear in the West will always be high relative to Asia if there continue to be labor cost differences.
It should be noted that Asia’s lower labor costs also reduce the OCC of other types of generation. In South Korea and China, the overnight costs of nuclear reactors are roughly 2–3 times higher than a coal power plant and 3–4 times higher than a natural gas plant. So, even if these countries have managed to cut construction costs down to their bare minimum, nuclear plants still cost significantly more to build than fossil fuel generators.
Nuclear plants in Asia also benefit from the fact that their competitors, especially natural gas generators, have higher relative costs than in the United States. Because of the fragmentation of global natural gas markets, natural gas prices are very low in the United States, higher in Europe, and significantly higher in Asia. Therefore, the cost–benefit analysis in Asia may favor nuclear because of both lower construction costs and higher relative costs of alternatives.
Nuclear construction in Asia has faltered since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. Japan has essentially stopped construction of new nuclear plants and only some of its existing plants have resumed operation. South Korea canceled plans for new construction, though its recently elected president has reversed the phase-out. And though construction in China has continued, the country did not meet nuclear targets set for 2020.
Despite these uncertainties about its future, the story of nuclear power in Asia over the past several decades has been one of general success. And it has spread beyond the Pacific Rim: a South Korean contractor is currently building four reactors in Barakah, United Arab Emirates, that could potentially have project costs of around $4,000 per kW. This is higher than the costs in South Korea and China, but much less than costs in the West, suggesting that some of the construction lessons in Asia can be transplanted elsewhere. These lessons are, of course, still subject to differences in labor rates and regulation in the United States and Europe, and the competitiveness of nuclear power in the West still depends on the relative costs of alternatives.
Nuclear Plant Costs vs. Fossil Fuel Plants
Whether nuclear power is a viable option for private investors depends on how its costs compare to alternatives. In the United States, nuclear plants operate as baseload generators, meaning they produce electricity nearly constantly at capacity to help meet the base demand on the electricity grid. In this function, nuclear’s primary competitors are coal power plants and natural gas combined cycle plants (NGCCs). The latter produce electricity both through a combustion turbine and by using waste heat to turn a steam turbine. This increases the electrical output per unit of fuel of NGCCs and allows them to operate as baseload generators.
The costs of nuclear, especially at the construction cost levels most recently seen in the West, are substantially higher than fossil fuel generators. However, it is possible that imposing a Pigouvian tax to account for climate damage from carbon emitted by burning fossil fuels could raise the cost of fossil fuel generation enough to equal nuclear costs.
Levelized costs / The primary tool used to compare the costs of different electricity generating technologies is the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). It models the cash flows of a plant over its construction period and operational lifetime and determines the average price of electricity (in cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated) required for the plant to break even when accounting for investment costs, operational costs, and a market return to investors.