But just how calm relations will be even in the short term will depend at least as much on China’s actions as on Mr. Ma’s policies. Beijing has an opportunity to maintain the momentum toward peace and stability, but it remains to be seen whether Chinese leaders will be wise enough to seize the moment. President Chen’s strategy of antagonizing Beijing by such measures as substituting “Taiwan” for “China” in the names of state-run corporations, purging most Chinese history from Taiwanese school textbooks, and seeking admission to the United Nations under the name “Taiwan” understandably made sensible Taiwanese nervous, but Mr. Ma must show that his more subtle and conciliatory approach will reduce tensions and bring tangible benefits.
Taiwanese voters across the political spectrum are most concerned about Beijing’s continued deployment of missiles targeted against the island. There are now more than 1,000 missiles in position, and that number is increasing at the rate of about a dozen per month. Given the emergence of a friendlier government in Taipei, China should at least freeze the deployments, and ideally begin to draw down the arsenal. If the provocative buildup continues, the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party will exploit the issue to undermine Mr. Ma.
The same pattern will occur if China does not abandon its strategy of diplomatic strangulation against Taiwan. Thanks largely to pressure and bribes from Beijing, the number of countries that still recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) has now dwindled to 23 mostly small nations in Africa and the Caribbean. There was some logic to Beijing’s strategy when President Chen repeatedly adopted measures to assert Taiwan’s sovereignty and separate national identity. Chinese officials wanted to demonstrate to Taipei that such conduct was counterproductive and would only increase Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation. The same consideration motivated China’s effort to exclude Taiwan from membership in international bodies, including even relatively apolitical ones like the World Health Organization.
For China to maintain that strategy against a KMT government, though, would be folly. It would convince even moderate Taiwanese that there was little to gain from adopting more conciliatory policies. If that attitude takes hold, the period of majority support for the KMT could be short-lived.
Even in the arena of economic policy, China must be careful not to overplay its hand. Taiwanese businesses already have a large economic stake in the mainland, but Mr. Ma is committed to easing the remaining limits on investments substantially. He also favors direct air and sea links between Taiwan and the mainland. These measures would significantly strengthen cross-Strait ties and act as a major factor for peace and stability.