Confirmation processes weren’t always like this. The Senate didn’t even hold public hearings on judicial nominations until 1916—and that innovation was driven by the unusual circumstances of 1) the resignation of a justice (Charles Evans Hughes) to run against a sitting president (Woodrow Wilson) and 2) the first Jewish nominee (Louis Brandeis). It wouldn’t be until 1938, with (also Jewish) Felix Frankfurter, that a Supreme Court nominee actually testified at his own hearing. A quarter century later came Byron White, whose testimony lasted 15 minutes and largely had to do with his football record.
That said, judicial nominations have always been political footballs. For the republic’s first century or so, close confirmation battles and unsuccessful nominees were a fairly regular occurrence—including withdrawn and postponed nominations, or those upon which the Senate deliberately failed to act.
George Washington had a chief-justice nominee rejected by the Senate. James Madison, the fourth president, also had a nominee bounced. And John Quincy Adams, who himself had declined a nomination from Madison, had a nominee “postponed indefinitely” during the lame-duck period after Andrew Jackson had stopped his bid for reelection.
President Jackson was then thwarted in appointing Roger Taney to the Court, but a change in Senate composition allowed Taney to become chief justice a year later (and eventually author of the worst decision in American history, Dred Scott). John Tyler, who assumed the presidency in 1841 after the one-month presidency of William Henry Harrison, never lived down his nickname of “His Accidency.” Congressional Whigs disputed his legitimacy, and their policy disagreements extended to judicial nominations: The Senate rejected or declined to act on four Tyler nominees (three of them twice) before finally confirming one.
Wait, there’s more. Millard Fillmore was prevented from filling a vacancy that arose during his tenure, as was James Buchanan. Congressional elimination of Supreme Court seats stopped Andrew Johnson from replacing the two justices who died during his presidency. For various reasons, it took Ulysses S. Grant seven nominations to fill three seats. Grover Cleveland ran into senatorial traditions regarding seats reserved for certain states, at the discretion of that state’s senators—which he overcame only by nominating a sitting senator (whereby courtesy trumped tradition).
Twentieth-century Presidents Warren Harding, Herbert Hoover, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, and Reagan all had nominees rejected—although Harding and Ike got their picks confirmed after resubmitting their names. FDR never had anyone rejected, but his court-packing plan was, both in Congress and at the polls. And LBJ’s proposed elevation of Justice Abe Fortas led to what is the first and only successful filibuster of a Supreme Court nominee; Fortas never even gained majority support after both parties’ senators raised ethical objections. Douglas Ginsburg withdrew before President Reagan could formally send his name to the Senate—for having smoked marijuana with his Harvard law students—and became the Drug War’s last public casualty. (Has the career of any other official in the past 30 years been hurt by revelations of drug use?)
Then of course there is Merrick Garland, President Obama’s nominee to fill Antonin Scalia’s seat and the first nominee on whom the Senate took no action since President Rutherford B. Hayes’s nomination of Stanley Matthews in 1881. Very soon after Scalia died, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell announced that his caucus would not hold any hearings or votes on a replacement nominee until after the election. Obama announced Garland’s nomination a month later, and there was no question he was qualified. This wasn’t about qualifications: It was a political argument that this significant vacancy shouldn’t be filled until voters—who had handed the Senate back to the GOP two years earlier, after having reelected Obama two years before that—had their say.
This seemed like unprecedented obstructionism, but, as we’ve seen, plenty of nominees have never gotten hearings or votes—and the last time a Senate confirmed a nomination made by a president of the opposing party to a high-court vacancy arising during a presidential-election year was in 1888. Just like the Senate could decline to take up a bill passed by the House, or a treaty signed by the president, it could surely decide how to exercise its constitutional power of “advice and consent.” Democratic senators had said as much; both then–Judiciary Committee Chairman Joe Biden in 1992 and now–Minority Leader Chuck Schumer in 2007 had argued that a Republican president shouldn’t get to appoint justices in the last year of his term.
As we know now, McConnell’s gambit worked: Not only did it not hurt vulnerable senators running for reelection—Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley won by nearly 25 points in supposedly swing-state Iowa—but the Supreme Court vacancy held the Republicans together and provided the margin for Donald Trump in key states. Trump rewarded that part of his electoral coalition with the nomination of Neil Gorsuch.
Justice Gorsuch ended up being confirmed 54–45, but only after the Senate decided, on a party-line vote, to exercise the “nuclear option” and remove filibusters for Supreme Court nominations. That returned Senate procedures to what they were 15 years earlier. A Senate majority can still stall a nomination—we could see more Garlands—but not a minority.
The elimination of the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees was the culmination of a tit-for-tat escalation by both parties, with partisan disagreements over when it all began. The Gorsuch denouement was retaliation for the Garland blockade, which in turn followed Harry Reid’s nuking of filibusters for lower-court and executive-branch nominees in 2013. That came a decade after Reid used the tactic to block George W. Bush’s nominations—most notably Miguel Estrada, whom Democrats didn’t want to see in position to become the first Hispanic justice (not counting Benjamin Cardozo, whose ancestors were Sephardic Jews from Portugal).
More significant, by filibustering Gorsuch, Democrats destroyed their leverage over future, more consequential vacancies. It’s not at all clear that moderate Republican senators would’ve gone for a “nuclear option” to seat Brett Kavanaugh in place of Anthony Kennedy—I think it’s pretty clear they wouldn’t have—but they didn’t face that dilemma. What’s more, they won’t face it if President Trump gets the chance to replace Justices Ginsburg (86 years old) or Stephen Breyer (81), which would represent an even bigger jurisprudential shift.
Given the battle we saw over Gorsuch and Kavanaugh, too many people now think of the justices in partisan terms. That’s too bad, but not a surprise when contrasting methods of constitutional and statutory interpretation now largely track identification with parties that are more ideologically coherent than ever. And confirmation hearings will continue to be kabuki theater, educational about legal doctrine but not illuminating the nominee’s judicial philosophy.
Why is all this such a big deal? Why all the focus on one office, however high? Sure, 2016 and 2018 were election years, but it’s not like either governance or politics grinds to a halt. If Secretary of State John Kerry had died or resigned in the last year of the Obama presidency, it certainly would’ve been an important political moment—with Republicans grilling his would-be successor on President Obama’s foreign-policy record—but there’s no doubt that the slot would have been filled if someone with generally appropriate credentials were nominated. Even a vacancy in the vice presidency wouldn’t have lasted unduly long, though Republicans would’ve jockeyed to extract concessions for not having Speaker Paul Ryan be first in the presidential line of succession.
But executive appointments expire at the end of a president’s term in office, while judicial appointments long outlast any presidency. A president has few, if any, constitutional powers more important—at least in domestic policy—than making judicial appointments. Justice Scalia served nearly 30 years on the Supreme Court, giving President Reagan’s legal-policy agenda a bridge well into the 21st century. An important ruling on nonprofit-donor disclosures was made in April 2016 by a district judge appointed by President Johnson (Lyndon, not Andrew).
Pundits always argue that judicial nominations should be among voters’ primary considerations when choosing a president. But the Supreme Court’s future truly did hang in the balance in 2016. The election was so consequential in part because people knew that its winner would have the first chance in more than 25 years to shift the Court’s ideological balance, either strengthening the conservative majority or tilting it to the left. Indeed, the Court now stands starkly split 5–4 on many issues: campaign finance, the Second Amendment, religious liberty, and regulatory power, to name just a few. If Hillary Clinton had been able to appoint a progressive jurist—even a “moderate” one—jurisprudence in these areas would be headed in a substantially different direction.
And that goes just as much or more for the lower courts, which decide 50,000 cases annually even as the Supreme Court decides fewer and fewer. Every four-year term, the president appoints about a fifth of the judiciary. Last Inauguration Day, there were already 105 vacancies—and that has risen to about 150. When Obama took office, only one of the 13 appellate circuit courts had majorities appointed by Democratic presidents; when he left, nine did. Donald Trump has now begun to reverse that, with one circuit (the Philadelphia-based Third) having flipped and others on the brink. Indeed, this administration set a record with 30 circuit judges confirmed in its first two years—about the same as Bush and Obama combined at that point in their presidencies.
Senatorial brinksmanship over judges and justices is symptomatic of a much larger problem that began long before Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Garland, Clarence Thomas, or even Bork: the Supreme Court’s own self-corruption, aiding and abetting the warping of federal power by Congress and the executive branch. The judiciary now affects public policy more than it ever did—and those decisions increasingly turn on the party of the president who nominated the judge or justice.
Even if politics has always been part of the process, and even if more judges were rejected in our country’s first century than its second, we still feel that something is different now. Confirmation hearings are the only time that judges go toe-to-toe with politicians—and that’s definitely a different gauntlet than even President Tyler’s nominees ran. Is it all about TV and Twitter, the 24-hour news cycle and the viral video? Is it that legal issues have become more ideologically divisive? No, it’s not that there’s been a perversion of the nomination process, more demagogic political rhetoric, or even the novel use of filibusters. Those are consequences of a larger phenomenon: As government has expanded, so has the importance of the judiciary.
Under the Constitution by which the country lived its first 150 years, the Supreme Court hardly ever had to strike down a law; congressional debates forestalled most unconstitutional measures. But as the Court has allowed the federal government to grow, so has the Court’s own power to police the federal programs its own jurisprudence enabled. For example, the idea that the General Welfare Clause justifies any legislation that gains a congressional majority—as opposed to limiting federal reach to truly national issues—emerged in the Progressive era. After 1937’s so-called switch in time that saved nine—when the Court began approving grandiose legislation of the sort it had previously rejected, perhaps in order to forestall FDR’s court-packing scheme—no federal legislation would be struck down until 1995.
It was the Court that thus politicized the Constitution, and the confirmation process, by laying the foundation for judicial mischief of every stripe—particularly by letting laws sail through that should be struck down. As the Court has let both the legislative and executive branches swell beyond their authorized powers, so have the laws and regulations that it now interprets. Competing theories battle for control of both the U.S. Code and Federal Register, as well as determining—often at the whim of one “swing vote”—what rights will be recognized. So of course judicial confirmations are going to be fraught.
At the same time, courts are reactive institutions: Even the most “activist” need a case or controversy, rather than reaching out to make rulings out of thin air. It’s Congress that’s the aggressor, both daring the courts to strike down significant pieces of legislation and passing broad legislation that leaves it to the administrative state to produce the legal rules by which people live their daily lives.
Senator Ben Sasse gave a pithy summary of this dynamic in his opening statement at the Kavanaugh hearings: