The COVID-19 pandemic has had dire effects on both public health and the economy. In reaction to the virus’s spread, many states have implemented stay‐​at‐​home orders and closures of all “nonessential businesses.” And national lockdowns have been mandated all over Europe.

These lockdowns raise all sorts of important economic questions:

• How much of the coming downturn will be driven by government shutdowns as opposed to the changing consumer and producer behavior we’d expect because of the virus?
• What will be the net consequences of lockdowns for economic welfare?
• What factors determine the optimal length and scope of these more suppressive measures?
• Are there alternatives to lockdowns that could achieve equivalent or higher benefits at lower total cost?