Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that the U.S. would defeat China if conflict erupted. The U.S. has the bigger military, is wealthier, and has more military allies, but none of these is determinative. With Washington’s “Blob” determined to defend most of the known world, from Europe to South Korea, American forces are spread thinly around the globe.
Geography would give China a huge advantage, including air superiority through use of mainland bases. China tends to win war games; victory for the U.S. comes at a very high cost. The results, reported NBC News, indicate that Washington “should prepare for a prolonged, deadly conflict.”
Richer America is, but the American people are heavily in debt, face a tsunami of red ink as the population ages and interest rates continue their inevitable rise, and are unlikely to forever mortgage their future for dubious foreign misadventures.
Finally, America cannot count on allies that may prove fair weather friends when missiles start flying: backing Taiwan, which none of them recognize, would turn them into current targets and future enemies of China, any China, which will always be near them. Happy talk today is no guarantee of military aid tomorrow.
One of Bacon’s more clueless expostulations was: “China will be mad; they’ll throw a fit. They did when Pelosi visited. That’s all right. They can throw a fit.”
That isn’t all the PRC can do. First, Beijing can change its assessment of U.S. and Taiwanese policy. China wants neither war nor Taiwanese independence. Rather, it hopes to intimidate Taipei into a negotiated surrender—the “one country, two systems” formula that was murdered and buried at Hong Kong.
As long as Taiwan operates as a largely unofficial state, China can put off any effort at coercion. However, if Taipei either pushes for or is pushed into a formal declaration of independence, the Chinese Communist Party must act or surrender its nationalist mantle. And determination to reclaim Taiwan is not limited to the CCP. It is held by the vast majority of Chinese, including the young.
The Pelosi visit—a vain political affair that did nothing to strengthen Taiwan’s geopolitical position—reinforced a growing belief among Chinese officialdom that both Taipei and Washington had changed their position, and were moving toward a policy of Taiwanese separatism/independence. Bacon proposes to confirm that fear by calling Taipei’s representative “ambassador,” modifying Washington’s diplomatic agreement with Taiwan, and elevating its status in the World Health Organization.
What should worry Bacon and the rest of the U,S, government is not the Chinese throwing a fit. Rather, it is changes to their own behavior in response. For instance, the PRC already has intensified its military activities around Taiwan, erasing the unofficial line once drawn between the mainland and Taiwan. This “new normal” will make life more difficult for Taipei and multiply the possibility of a military incident between China and Taiwan, the U.S., or both.
The belief that Washington is reneging on its commitment to one China is likely to cause Beijing to increase planning for contingencies involving a Taiwanese independence bid and accelerate military preparation for a kinetic response. The U.S. would have to decide whether it would be prepared for war—certain to be a massive conventional contest with potential nuclear strikes.
This provides the answer to Bacon’s query: “I don’t know why [China] can tell us who we can recognize and who we can’t.” Of course, the PRC can tell us what they want us to do, just as we do the same to the rest of the world. That still doesn’t mean we have to comply; but, since the recognition of Beijing on January 1, 1979, Washington has chosen to do so.
In response to a U.S. reversal, the PRC would probably at least roll back relations, perhaps even close embassies, halt cooperation elsewhere, and further accelerate military harassment of Taiwan. Or it could demonstrate its seriousness with a formal break, leaving the world’s two most important nations without diplomatic contact. The last time that happened, they ended up at war with each other in Korea. In practice, it is far more important to talk with your adversaries than your friends. Conflict with the PRC over Taiwan would be a throwback to the Korean War or even World War II rather than Afghanistan or Iraq redux. Never before have two major powers armed with nuclear weapons fought a full-scale war.