But unless Congress or President Biden act soon, this success may be seriously compromised. The vast majority of Ukrainians admitted over the last year have so far been given only a temporary right to live and work in the United States. When their time limits expire, they could be subject to deportation or at least be unable to work legally.
Ukrainians admitted under the Uniting for Ukraine program are granted residency and work rights for two years after arrival. For the earliest program participants, those rights will expire in April or May 2024. More will lose legal status thereafter. Ukrainians who reached the United States before April 11, 2022, have been given Temporary Protected Status, which offers similar residency and work permits. But TPS for Ukrainians is currently scheduled to expire on Oct. 19.
Biden could potentially extend both the TPS and Uniting for Ukraine deadlines by executive action. If he doesn’t, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian migrants fleeing Putin’s war will be left in legal limbo, potentially subject to deportation. Even if few are actually deported, constant fear of that prospect makes it difficult to have anything approaching a normal life. Moreover, loss of work authorization will make many employers reluctant to hire Ukrainian migrants. That, in turn, would consign them to unemployment or to the black-market economy.
In addition to the obvious harm inflicted on the Ukrainians themselves, loss of legal status would also curtail their potential contributions to the US economy and society. A population living illegally in “the shadows” is much less likely to assimilate effectively. And people barred from working legally cannot make as big an economic contribution as they would otherwise. Among other things, they are unlikely to engage in entrepreneurship and scientific innovation of the kind to which immigrants disproportionately contribute.
One possible reason why the Biden administration set such short deadlines is it might have expected the war in Ukraine to be over by 2024, thereby enabling refugees to return home. But it is increasingly clear the war might well last much longer. Moreover, experience with past refugee crises shows that many migrants are — for good reason — unable or unwilling to return to their countries of origin even when the war ends.
Biden could potentially extend the Uniting for Ukraine and TPS deadlines through unilateral executive action. But such an executive fix would still leave refugees vulnerable to the whims of whomever sits in the White House. If Biden or a future president found it politically convenient to do so, they could easily terminate their rights or just let them expire again.