On September 13, the United States announced that it would redirect $85 million in foreign military financing from Egypt to Taiwan due to the former’s human rights abuses. Egypt’s disregard for human rights is an ongoing problem, with the government having recently detained a French journalist covering civilian bombings. While only a start, the Biden administration’s policy shift is long overdue: we cannot treat all weapon recipients as equal priorities.

Many countries in the greater Middle East, including Egypt, not only use the arms they receive to abuse human rights but also face few security threats. Yet, they still often receive weapons over Taiwan due to the frequency of their major purchases. By prioritizing Taiwan – a democratic country facing a huge security threat – Washington will reduce the chance of US weapons being used to abuse human rights and simultaneously help Taiwan deter Chinese aggression.

Despite Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia,” Donald Trump’s antagonism towards China, and Joe Biden’s statements about an American commitment to Taiwan’s security, the three successive administrations did little to ensure they sent Taipei the weapons it needs to defend itself from a potential attack. Instead, they have sent weapons badly needed in Taiwan to some of the world’s most oppressive dictators.

While Biden has framed much of his foreign policy as creating a coalition of liberal states to fight back against the rising tide of global authoritarianism, his actions have shown otherwise. He has consistently cozied up to some of the world’s most brutal dictators at the cost of aiding democracies. Many think tanks agree with this assessment: according to Freedom House, Taiwan currently scores a 94 out of a possible 100, while Egypt has an abysmal score of just 18.

The Human Freedom Index likewise ranks Taiwan as the 14th freest country or territory in the world; meanwhile, Egypt places 161st (out of 165 ranked countries and territories). Moreover, the Cato Institute’s Arms Sales Risk Index ranks Egypt as the 17th riskiest weapons recipient in the world while Taiwan is the fifth safest. But even with these widely diverging scores and rankings, the Biden administration has notified Congress of arms sales to Egypt worth nearly double those to Taiwan.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, both Taiwan and Egypt have ordered anti-ship and anti-tank missiles from the United States. Since the start of the Obama administration, Egypt has received 100 per cent of its requests for such systems and is only awaiting shipments of 3.3 per cent of all total weapons it has ordered. Conversely, Taiwan is awaiting the delivery of 1,886 anti-tank and anti-ship missiles and has only received 42 per cent of the total number of weapons it has ordered from Washington since 2008.

Ultimately, Taiwan and Egypt are competing for weapons. Some argue that the United States should simply increase defense spending to improve its defense industrial base, but this misses three important facts. First, instability in defense contracts means that workers are often let go and expensive to bring back and retrain, shrinking the workforce in the defense industry.

Second, it is not possible to quickly boost production because the United States has not spent enough in recent years to increase defense production to the level required to quickly deliver weapons to all customers. Finally, the least-cost incentive process encourages companies to offer the cheapest contracts possible, which means they are not designed to build weapons quickly. Relatedly, this process means that companies fulfill those contracts in order of the largest and most consistent customers. Therefore, frequent purchasers of major systems, such as Egypt, tend to receive priority over Taiwan.

For the United States to arm Taiwan to the point where it can deter Chinese aggression, prioritization is key. The best way to prioritize would be to send weapons to customers that pose little risk to US security and are strategically important before agreeing to sales worth billions of dollars every year to some of the world’s worst human rights abusers.

A Chinese war with Taiwan would run contrary to global interests due in large part to the massive costs – with US intelligence estimating it could cost the world $1 trillion and the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimating that tens of thousands would be dead within the first weeks of war.

The move to send military aid initially bound for Egypt to Taiwan is a sign that the Biden administration is moving in the right direction. Prioritizing weapons transfers to freer countries facing massive security threats over repressive autocrats facing few external risks will increase global security while reducing Washington’s role in human rights atrocities.