There are environmental consequences as well. A dearth of coastal shipping – in large part due to the Jones Act’s high costs – has increased demand for alternative forms of transportation. That means higher prices for trucking and rail, increased congestion, more highway maintenance and – particularly in the case of trucking – more pollution. Indeed, a 2020 Cato Institute analysis calculated that the value of potential environmental gains of repealing the Jones Act would range as high as $8.2 billion as newer vessels displaced older Jones Act-compliant tonnage and freight is shifted away from more polluting modes.
The Jones Act’s role as a trade barrier is another oft-overlooked cost. U.S. trade partners often express their desire for access to the domestic shipping market, but U.S. officials invariably refuse to cede ground during trade negotiations. In retaliation, U.S. trading partners refuse to open sectors of their economy desired by U.S. exporters.
An example of this was seen during talks that eventually produced the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement in 2007. U.S. officials sought to open the South Korean rice market. South Korea – one of the world’s leading shipbuilding countries – responded by demanding the Americans grant concessions on the Jones Act. The U.S. delegation refused, and the mutually beneficial deal was deep-sixed.
Other costs stemming from the Jones Act also bear mentioning. In the offshore wind sector, viewed by many in Congress and the White House as critical to the transition to net-zero carbon, both the high cost of U.S. shipbuilding and inefficiencies resulting from Jones Act restrictions have contributed to the nascent industry’s struggles. Then there’s the issue of dredging, critical to the efficient operation of U.S. ports and waterways. It, too, suffers from strictures imposed by the Jones Act and a related maritime law.
Accounting for all the wheels spinning within wheels would be no small feat, but analysts have tried.
A 1988 GAO report found that the Jones Act’s U.S.-build requirement alone imposed costs of $163 million per year (approximately $418 million in 2023 dollars) just on Alaska – an amount equal to 2 percent of the state’s personal income. A private 2020 study found that the Jones Act imposes $1.2 billion in costs to Hawaii, while a 2019 study found costs to Puerto Rico of $1.1 billion. A 2023 working paper estimated that eliminating the Jones Act’s application to the transport of fuel from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast would increase “consumer surplus” – the net benefit from the market transaction – by $769 million annually.
Combined with environmental and other costs, these studies suggest an aggregate toll in the many billions of dollars. That would comport with a 2019 study from the OECD that found that the Jones Act’s repeal would increase U.S. GDP by $19 billion to $64 billion (no misprint).
The Jones Act and National Security
When confronted with such estimates, Jones Act supporters typically contend that the extra costs are more than offset by the law’s contributions to national security. In theory, these benefits take the form of ships ready (and legally obliged) to provide sealift for the U.S. military, along with mariners who can crew sealift vessels and shipyards that can both build and repair ships for the military. Sounds good, but the argument doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.
If the Jones Act was meant to provide a large fleet of merchant ships and mariners, then it has come up short. Very short. Comprising a fleet of 257 large oceangoing cargo ships as recently as 1980, the number of these vessels that comply with the Jones Act has since declined to 93. Of these, only 74 are deemed militarily useful.
But even these numbers overstate Jones Act ships’ defense contribution since they are rarely called upon. During Operation Iraqi Freedom, for example, just 6.3 percent of deployment cargo was transported by U.S.- flagged merchant ships – only a subset of which were from the Jones Act fleet. During Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm in 1990–91, just one Jones Act-compliant ship was pulled from commercial trade to transport cargo from the United States to Saudi Arabia.
U.S. officials have implicitly conceded the peripheral role of these ships in meeting U.S. sealift needs. In 2021 congressional testimony, for example, the head of the U.S. Transportation Command expressed great reluctance to call upon Jones Act ships in times of conflict, citing the economic disruptions that would result from withdrawing the fleet from commercial service. Similarly, that same year a U.S. Maritime Administration report warned that Jones Act tankers – which comprise the majority of Jones Act oceangoing ships – would be “largely unavailable to [the Department of Defense] without major disruption to domestic transport needs.”
The Jones Act’s contributions to domestic shipbuilding are similarly desultory. From 2000 to 2023, U.S. shipyards collectively built an average of fewer than three oceangoing cargo ships per year – and just three are currently slated for delivery for the remainder of this decade. In contrast, Hyundai Heavy Industries’ Ulsan, South Korea, shipyard alone was scheduled to deliver 47 ships in 2023. In terms of gross tonnage delivered, U.S. ship- building over the past decade has trailed not only leading shipbuilders such as China and South Korea, but also every region of Europe.
This anemic production is predictable, given the underlying economics. The high prices charged by U.S. shipyards mean they are restricted to building for the industry’s captive U.S. market. That relatively small market, in turn, is rendered even smaller by Jones Act shipping’s lack of competitiveness, which consigns it to trade where there is no competition from alternative transportation modes.
Even on these routes, however, there is only tepid demand for new vessels due to sky-high replacement costs. The inevitable result is an aging fleet. While internationally flagged ships have typical life spans of 25–30 years – and are often scrapped even earlier to make way for more efficient ships – the last 18 Jones Act ships removed from the fleet had an average age of 43 years. In 2019 ships from the international fleet had an average age of 12.7 years, compared to 20 years for Jones Act ships.
The damage inflicted by the U.S.-build requirement to national security, therefore, is at least two-fold. First, saddling Jones Act shipping with such high capital costs cripples its competitiveness and encourages the fleet’s contraction. Second, by discouraging fleet modernization, the build requirement degrades the Jones Act fleet’s military utility. “Degrade” is an understatement. Commercial ships operating as part of the Maritime Security Program to provide sealift must be no more than 15 years of age, while vessels participating in the Tanker Security Program cannot be older than 10.
The use of aging ships has at least one other perverse effect. To reduce the cost of the more frequent repair and maintenance required of these vessels, Jones Act shipping firms – particularly those operating in the Pacific – utilize state-owned Chinese shipyards. In effect, the Jones Act’s prevention of fleet modernization drives demand for repair services to a country widely considered to be the United States’ leading geopolitical rival.
Meanwhile, practical considerations undermine U.S. shipyards’ ability to offer meaningful contributions in a military crisis. Although Jones Act-compliant ships are nominally “U.S. built,” U.S. shipyards’ extensive reliance on an international supply chain – including from China – calls into question their ability to obtain needed components to construct new vessels in wartime. Furthermore, the few ships built by U.S. shipyards take significantly longer to deliver than those constructed abroad. The last 10 Jones Act-compliant containerships, for example, required an average of 35 months to construct.
Such timelines mean that, in a future conflict, there is a very real chance that any merchant ships ordered from U.S. shipyards would be delivered long after the guns had gone quiet. Indeed, this exact scenario has played itself out before. A crash shipbuilding program launched during World War I resulted in the construction of over 2,000 vessels, but few were delivered before the cessation of hostilities.