This is a very hostile environment for a Japan-North Korea summit, but taking a moonshot at diplomacy is a good idea for two reasons. First, while Pyongyang’s reaction to Kishida’s overtures have been inconsistent, North Korea’s leadership is at least somewhat receptive to the idea, a far cry from its hostile reaction to US and South Korean statements. Second, even if Japan’s efforts fail, they will not make the current situation any worse.
The Overblown Wedge Strategy
One prominent argument against a potential Japan-North Korea summit is that it risks driving a wedge between Japan, South Korea, and the United States that could undermine recent progress on trilateral cooperation. Indeed, concerns about North Korea identifying and exploiting wedges are perennial whenever there is high-level diplomacy with Pyongyang.
Wedge fears are a bad reason to oppose Japan’s attempts to talk with North Korea.
While Tokyo may not perfectly see eye-to-eye with Washington and Seoul on every issue, its core security interests are much more closely aligned with the US and South Korea. The US-Japan alliance is also critical to Tokyo’s overall national security. Japan is therefore highly unlikely to take actions or make concessions to North Korea that risk its relationship with Washington.
In terms of the trilateral US-Japan-South Korea relationship, a potential wedge may be more likely given the newness of trilateral cooperation. However, history indicates that wedge issues in trilateral cooperation are more likely to come from domestic politics rather than Japan’s diplomatic outreach to North Korea.
Indeed, if Kishida’s overtures to Kim successfully buoy his dismal approval rating, then a summit would buttress trilateral cooperation by improving Kishida’s prospects for staying in power, allowing more time for cooperative efforts to take root before facing the potential stress of new administrations.
Conclusion
The United States should welcome the prospect of a Japan-North Korea summit. The current state of play on the peninsula is already in such a bad place that any diplomatic overture, even one with a low chance of success, has more potential upside than downside. Hopefully Biden will convey a supportive message to Kishida on this issue when the two meet in Washington on April 10.