The new tests seemed to catch US officials by surprise, but Pyongyang’s decision was a predictable reaction to the Biden administration’s failure to pursue significant new initiatives leading to the normalization of relations with Kim’s government. About the only sign of flexibility was the report from South Korea’s foreign minister in late January that Washington and Seoul had agreed on the draft of a declaration proclaiming an official end to the Korean War. Even that move, though, would still depend on negotiations with North Korea, and that essential step remained highly uncertain.
The current impasse in relations between Washington and Pyongyang is immensely frustrating. After some encouraging demonstrations of policy flexibility during the middle of Donald Trump’s presidency, the White House backed off and resumed Washington’s long-standing diplomatic strategy of demanding that Pyongyang take steps toward the abolition of its nuclear-weapons program before meaningful negotiations can take place on other issues. Biden’s foreign policy team has persisted in that same approach.
However, Washington’s demand for a “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” end to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions has been a nonstarter for more than two decades. The parallel demand regarding Pyongyang’s increasingly extensive and sophisticated ballistic missile program has proven equally futile. Indeed, despite the demands of Washington and the “international community, enforced by ever-tighter economic sanctions, North Korea has continued to build more nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems. A 2021 report by the Defense Intelligence Agency conceded that Pyongyang already “retains a stockpile of nuclear weapons. Outside experts estimate that the country has produced enough fissile material for between 20 to 60 warheads.” A 2021 Rand Corporation study concluded that, given current trends, the number would reach between 151 and 242 by 2027. In addition, Pyongyang would have numerous mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at its disposal to deliver such weapons.
It should be noted, though, that North Korea has not conducted a nuclear-weapons test since September 2017 – coinciding with the Trump administration’s willingness to hold direct talks, including summit meetings between the president and Kim. Pyongyang also adopted a self-imposed moratorium on even short-range missile tests. The launches of short-range missiles resumed only when it became apparent that the prospect of a breakthrough in relations with Washington had stalled. North Korea’s moratorium on nuclear tests remains in effect for the time being, as does the moratorium on ICBM launches, but it is increasingly uncertain how long that manifestation of restraint will continue.