Russia’s attack was unjustified and criminal, causing needless death and destruction in Ukraine, and sacrificing Russian lives for no good reason. The U.S. and Europeans share the blame, having spent decades ignoring and dismissing security complaints from Moscow, a decision that turned out to be foolish, even reckless. However, that does not excuse Putin’s murderous aggression. Nor are Ukrainians his only victims; Vladimir Putin’s decision has sent shockwaves across nations and continents.
The greatest risk to the U.S. and European nations is an expansion of the war. Although Russia would lose any conventional contest with NATO, nuclear weapons could become the terrible equalizer. For that reason, the allies were initially cautious in supporting Kiev. President Joe Biden made clear that no American personnel would fight. And NATO members were reluctant to send highly visible or destructive weapons, like warplanes.
However, Ukraine’s early successes, which no amount of Kremlin propaganda could disguise, increased Kiev’s demands for aid and Western expectations of sending that aid. U.S. analysts estimated extravagant Russian personnel and materiel losses. Increasingly, Ukraine and its supporters imagined the possibility of victory.
Allied aid shipments burgeoned, with the U.S. Congress recently approving another $40 billion in assistance. Assessments of the fighting continued to offer glowing highlights of Ukrainian successes with little mention of any casualties. Ebullient U.S. officials spoke of killing Russian generals, sinking Russian ships, and weakening the Russian state.
This doubtless is what most Americans and Europeans desired. (The global South, including most of Latin America, Africa, and Asia, refused to join the West’s anti-Moscow bandwagon.) The rush to demonize any and all things Russian, including singers, conductors, and athletes, had the effect of shutting down diverse sources of information. The tech giants not only suppressed Russian propagandists, but Russian advocates. There is little objective discussion of the conflict’s course, even in mainstream sources. Ukrainian perspectives dominate, with think tanks acting as P.R. firms and leading journalists serving as P.R. flacks for Ukraine.
The appeal of supporting Ukraine is obvious: it is the victim of brutal aggression. But distorting reality does the country no favors. Dubious claims of success risk inflating expectations and causing future failures.
Of greatest concern for the people of Ukraine, the prospects for peace in the region appear increasingly remote. For instance, Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak declared: “The war must end with the complete restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” including areas seized in 2014, most notably the Crimea and much of the Donbass. Indeed, Mykhailo Podolyak, Kiev’s lead peace negotiator, appeared to foreclose talks entirely unless Moscow retreats first: “The forces must leave the country and after that the resumption of the peace process will be possible.”
If Kiev is winning, and likely to continue winning, such a demand might be reasonable. If not, however, then this position is a prescription for stalemate at best, or perhaps even defeat. Indeed, some mainstream voices are warning that all might not be well with Kiev’s planned victory march.
For instance, German Brigadier General Erich Vad recently offered a far more pessimistic assessment than that which dominates Western airwaves: