Cato Daily Dispatch for December 30, 2003
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What if Musharraf is Assassinated?U.S. Orders Air Marshals on Some Foreign Carriers
Powell: U.S. Open to Discussions with Iran
What if Musharraf is Assassinated?
"Two recent assassination attempts against Pakistan's president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, have renewed concern in the Bush administration over both the stability of a critical ally and the security of its nuclear weapons if General Musharraf were killed or removed from office," The New York Times reports.
"Administration officials would not discuss their contingency plans for Pakistan, but several said the White House was revisiting an effort begun just after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to help Pakistan improve the security of its nuclear arsenal and to prevent Al Qaeda or extremists within the Pakistani military or intelligence services from gaining access to the country's weapons and fissile material."
In the Cato Policy Analysis, "Extremist, Nuclear Pakistan: An Emerging Threat?", Subodh Atal, an independent foreign affairs analyst, argues, "Forcing Pakistan to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure within its borders and put a tight lid on its nuclear proliferation activities is more likely to fortify short- and long-term U.S. national security interests than is an invasion of Iraq. There is also a need for contingency plans to rapidly secure and extract Pakistan's nuclear weapons in case of a coup by Islamic radicals."
He goes on to say that "if Musharraf does not have full control over his expanding nuclear assets, then the world may be dealing with a nuclear rogue nation."
U.S. Orders Air Marshals on Some Foreign Carriers
"One week after raising its terror alert level, the U.S. government on Monday ordered foreign airlines to place armed marshals on selected flights to and from the United States to thwart attacks," Reuters reports.
"When intelligence information shows signs of a potential threat on a flight the department will require foreign carriers to place armed government law enforcement officers on particular passenger and cargo flights."
Senior Fellow Robert A. Levy says that one way to thwart a possible terrorist hijacking would be for pilots to carry guns in the cockpit, which legislation currently permits after training. Levy writes in "Invitation to Terror: This Plane Is a Gun-Free Zone" : "The Air Line Pilots Association, with overwhelming support from its members, wants armed pilots in cockpits. 'Under the old model of hijackings,' said a union spokesman, the 'strategy was to accommodate, negotiate and do not escalate. But that was before. The cockpit has to be defended at all costs.'"
Powell: U.S. Open to Discussions with Iran
"The United States is open to restoring a dialogue with Iran after 'encouraging' moves by the Islamic republic in recent months, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said yesterday," The Washington Post reports.
"Iranian leaders have agreed to allow surprise inspections of the country's nuclear energy program, have made overtures to moderate Arab governments and, in the past week, have accepted direct U.S. help as the country struggles with the effects of a devastating earthquake."
In "Iran: Clash of Sovereignties," Stanley Kober, research fellow in foreign policy studies, writes: "Iran is in the grip of a domestic struggle for power. On one side are those who believe that power comes from the people; on the other are those who believe that power comes from God. What is commonly portrayed as a struggle between reformers and conservatives is actually a confrontation between two sources of political legitimacy: a clash of sovereignties." "The rest of the world was skeptical about the administration's rationale for invading Iraq. It is likely to be more skeptical about Iran. But the real question is whether -- having yet to find any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq or any real linkages to al Qaeda -- the American public is willing to suspend disbelief a second time."
Jonathan Block, editor, jblock@cato.org